Recent thundershowers and increased cloud cover tied to regional moisture influx are the main drivers keeping trader consensus centered on 29–31°C for Shanghai’s August 11 high, with 30°C leading at 37.5% implied probability. Official guidance highlights humid subtropical conditions where daytime solar heating is moderated by persistent overcast skies and scattered precipitation, limiting peaks below the month’s typical 32–35°C climatology. Model runs show limited spread around these values, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that could either enhance or suppress the diurnal temperature range. New forecast updates from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月11日上海气温最高？
8月11日上海气温最高？
30°C 38%
29°C 31%
31°C 16%
28°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
6%
29°C
31%
30°C
38%
31°C
16%
32°C
5%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 38%
29°C 31%
31°C 16%
28°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-11
23°C or below
$371 交易量
<1%
24°C
$371 交易量
<1%
25°C
$137 交易量
<1%
26°C
$135 交易量
<1%
27°C
$412 交易量
3%
28°C
$806 交易量
6%
29°C
$283 交易量
31%
30°C
$301 交易量
38%
31°C
$196 交易量
16%
32°C
$70 交易量
5%
33°C or higher
$141 交易量
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent thundershowers and increased cloud cover tied to regional moisture influx are the main drivers keeping trader consensus centered on 29–31°C for Shanghai’s August 11 high, with 30°C leading at 37.5% implied probability. Official guidance highlights humid subtropical conditions where daytime solar heating is moderated by persistent overcast skies and scattered precipitation, limiting peaks below the month’s typical 32–35°C climatology. Model runs show limited spread around these values, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that could either enhance or suppress the diurnal temperature range. New forecast updates from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$3,223结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent thundershowers and increased cloud cover tied to regional moisture influx are the main drivers keeping trader consensus centered on 29–31°C for Shanghai’s August 11 high, with 30°C leading at 37.5% implied probability. Official guidance highlights humid subtropical conditions where daytime solar heating is moderated by persistent overcast skies and scattered precipitation, limiting peaks below the month’s typical 32–35°C climatology. Model runs show limited spread around these values, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that could either enhance or suppress the diurnal temperature range. New forecast updates from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,223结束日期
2026-08-11市场开放时间
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent thundershowers and increased cloud cover tied to regional moisture influx are the main drivers keeping trader consensus centered on 29–31°C for Shanghai’s August 11 high, with 30°C leading at 37.5% implied probability. Official guidance highlights humid subtropical conditions where daytime solar heating is moderated by persistent overcast skies and scattered precipitation, limiting peaks below the month’s typical 32–35°C climatology. Model runs show limited spread around these values, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that could either enhance or suppress the diurnal temperature range. New forecast updates from regional meteorological centers in the next 24–48 hours will provide the next key data point for refining these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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