**Trader sentiment for Shanghai's August 10, 2026, daily maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%.** Recent meteorological model consensus and official guidance point to Typhoon Dolphin’s influence as the dominant near-term driver. The system is forecast to bring widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall to the Shanghai region through August 9–10, sharply reducing solar insolation and daytime heating compared with typical mid-August conditions. Climatological baselines show average August highs near 31–32°C under clearer skies, but the current synoptic pattern favors suppressed maxima. Time-and-date and other extended forecasts list an overcast, rain-affected high around 28°C for August 10, with elevated humidity and strong winds further limiting temperature recovery. These factors explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 28–30°C while outcomes above 31°C remain low-single-digit probabilities. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and refined model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds, as small changes in rainfall timing or cloud persistence could move the realized maximum within the narrow 28–30°C window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月10日上海气温最高？
8月10日上海气温最高？
29°C 45%
30°C 22%
28°C 20%
31°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
6%
28°C
20%
29°C
45%
30°C
22%
31°C
9%
32°C
3%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 45%
30°C 22%
28°C 20%
31°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-10
23°C or below
$282 交易量
<1%
24°C
$218 交易量
<1%
25°C
$53 交易量
<1%
26°C
$286 交易量
1%
27°C
$722 交易量
6%
28°C
$507 交易量
20%
29°C
$1,336 交易量
45%
30°C
$987 交易量
22%
31°C
$993 交易量
9%
32°C
$860 交易量
3%
33°C or higher
$650 交易量
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai's August 10, 2026, daily maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%.** Recent meteorological model consensus and official guidance point to Typhoon Dolphin’s influence as the dominant near-term driver. The system is forecast to bring widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall to the Shanghai region through August 9–10, sharply reducing solar insolation and daytime heating compared with typical mid-August conditions.
Climatological baselines show average August highs near 31–32°C under clearer skies, but the current synoptic pattern favors suppressed maxima. Time-and-date and other extended forecasts list an overcast, rain-affected high around 28°C for August 10, with elevated humidity and strong winds further limiting temperature recovery. These factors explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 28–30°C while outcomes above 31°C remain low-single-digit probabilities.
Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and refined model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds, as small changes in rainfall timing or cloud persistence could move the realized maximum within the narrow 28–30°C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$6,895结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai's August 10, 2026, daily maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%.** Recent meteorological model consensus and official guidance point to Typhoon Dolphin’s influence as the dominant near-term driver. The system is forecast to bring widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall to the Shanghai region through August 9–10, sharply reducing solar insolation and daytime heating compared with typical mid-August conditions.
Climatological baselines show average August highs near 31–32°C under clearer skies, but the current synoptic pattern favors suppressed maxima. Time-and-date and other extended forecasts list an overcast, rain-affected high around 28°C for August 10, with elevated humidity and strong winds further limiting temperature recovery. These factors explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 28–30°C while outcomes above 31°C remain low-single-digit probabilities.
Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and refined model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds, as small changes in rainfall timing or cloud persistence could move the realized maximum within the narrow 28–30°C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,895结束日期
2026-08-10市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Shanghai's August 10, 2026, daily maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C, with 29°C holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%.** Recent meteorological model consensus and official guidance point to Typhoon Dolphin’s influence as the dominant near-term driver. The system is forecast to bring widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall to the Shanghai region through August 9–10, sharply reducing solar insolation and daytime heating compared with typical mid-August conditions. Climatological baselines show average August highs near 31–32°C under clearer skies, but the current synoptic pattern favors suppressed maxima. Time-and-date and other extended forecasts list an overcast, rain-affected high around 28°C for August 10, with elevated humidity and strong winds further limiting temperature recovery. These factors explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 28–30°C while outcomes above 31°C remain low-single-digit probabilities. Upcoming National Meteorological Center updates and refined model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds, as small changes in rainfall timing or cloud persistence could move the realized maximum within the narrow 28–30°C window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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