Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Decades of refined orbital tracking and statistical models place such events on timescales of centuries or longer, with no candidates approaching the required size or energy threshold. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically shift outcomes, current survey coverage and observational capabilities make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end resolution via the NASA JPL Fireball database.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$116,717 交易量
$116,717 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$116,717 交易量
$116,717 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Decades of refined orbital tracking and statistical models place such events on timescales of centuries or longer, with no candidates approaching the required size or energy threshold. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically shift outcomes, current survey coverage and observational capabilities make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end resolution via the NASA JPL Fireball database.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,717结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Decades of refined orbital tracking and statistical models place such events on timescales of centuries or longer, with no candidates approaching the required size or energy threshold. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically shift outcomes, current survey coverage and observational capabilities make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end resolution via the NASA JPL Fireball database.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$116,717结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETExtensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA, ESA, and ground-based surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton atmospheric airburst in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied probability for "No." Decades of refined orbital tracking and statistical models place such events on timescales of centuries or longer, with no candidates approaching the required size or energy threshold. Trader consensus reflects this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. While discovery of a previously undetected long-period comet or rare trajectory miscalculation could theoretically shift outcomes, current survey coverage and observational capabilities make these scenarios highly improbable before year-end resolution via the NASA JPL Fireball database.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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