A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already at +1.8°C and rising toward super-El Niño levels by fall, represents the dominant near-term driver of September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Official forecasts from NOAA, WMO, and multi-model ensembles indicate this event will boost late-2026 temperatures, though the typical 1–2 month lag in global atmospheric response means its peak influence arrives after September. Year-to-date observations and seasonal outlooks place the 2026 annual anomaly near 1.45–1.55°C above pre-industrial baselines, with September monthly values sensitive to exact Pacific heat release, Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcement, and short-term variability in model runs. This produces closely balanced market-implied odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins, as traders weigh the strength of El Niño intensification against baseline climatology and potential for modest cooling offsets from other modes. Updated NOAA and ECMWF guidance through early September will provide the next key constraints on resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already at +1.8°C and rising toward super-El Niño levels by fall, represents the dominant near-term driver of September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Official forecasts from NOAA, WMO, and multi-model ensembles indicate this event will boost late-2026 temperatures, though the typical 1–2 month lag in global atmospheric response means its peak influence arrives after September. Year-to-date observations and seasonal outlooks place the 2026 annual anomaly near 1.45–1.55°C above pre-industrial baselines, with September monthly values sensitive to exact Pacific heat release, Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcement, and short-term variability in model runs. This produces closely balanced market-implied odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins, as traders weigh the strength of El Niño intensification against baseline climatology and potential for modest cooling offsets from other modes. Updated NOAA and ECMWF guidance through early September will provide the next key constraints on resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already at +1.8°C and rising toward super-El Niño levels by fall, represents the dominant near-term driver of September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Official forecasts from NOAA, WMO, and multi-model ensembles indicate this event will boost late-2026 temperatures, though the typical 1–2 month lag in global atmospheric response means its peak influence arrives after September. Year-to-date observations and seasonal outlooks place the 2026 annual anomaly near 1.45–1.55°C above pre-industrial baselines, with September monthly values sensitive to exact Pacific heat release, Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcement, and short-term variability in model runs. This produces closely balanced market-implied odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins, as traders weigh the strength of El Niño intensification against baseline climatology and potential for modest cooling offsets from other modes. Updated NOAA and ECMWF guidance through early September will provide the next key constraints on resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA developing strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already at +1.8°C and rising toward super-El Niño levels by fall, represents the dominant near-term driver of September 2026 global temperature anomaly expectations, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Official forecasts from NOAA, WMO, and multi-model ensembles indicate this event will boost late-2026 temperatures, though the typical 1–2 month lag in global atmospheric response means its peak influence arrives after September. Year-to-date observations and seasonal outlooks place the 2026 annual anomaly near 1.45–1.55°C above pre-industrial baselines, with September monthly values sensitive to exact Pacific heat release, Indian Ocean Dipole reinforcement, and short-term variability in model runs. This produces closely balanced market-implied odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins, as traders weigh the strength of El Niño intensification against baseline climatology and potential for modest cooling offsets from other modes. Updated NOAA and ECMWF guidance through early September will provide the next key constraints on resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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