The 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B remains tightly contested after 13 rounds, with São Bernardo and Vila Nova atop the table on 25 points while Sport sits third on 24 and a cluster of sides including Novorizontino, Criciúma, Fortaleza, Náutico, and Athletic all within striking distance on 19–21 points. The mid-June FIFA World Cup break has frozen momentum for several promotion hopefuls, leaving traders to weigh recent unbeaten runs (São Bernardo’s nine-game streak stands out), goal-difference edges, and post-pause fixture difficulty. Multiple coaching adjustments and the double round-robin format further flatten probabilities across more than a dozen clubs, underscoring why implied probabilities for the eventual champion stay bunched between roughly 40–50 percent for the leading contenders and drop gradually for the rest of the field.