Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks from the 2026 US-Iran crisis. Recent transits have averaged 7-12 vessels daily—far below pre-conflict norms of 120-140—due to Iran's post-ceasefire cap of 15 ships requiring permits and tolls, compounded by the US Navy's April 12 blockade announcement, which deterred a dozen vessels on April 13 alone. Lower brackets like 8-11 (25%) capture fragile truce dynamics, while higher outcomes languish below 10% amid shadow-fleet dominance and outbound bias. Traders eye potential escalation or clearance operations as key swing factors before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4-7 39%
8-11 27%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
<4
11%
4-7
39%
8-11
27%
12-15
9%
16-19
6%
20+
9%
4-7 39%
8-11 27%
<4 11%
12-15 9%
最新
最新
2026-04-19
<4
$1,017 交易量
11%
4-7
$489 交易量
39%
8-11
$354 交易量
27%
12-15
$416 交易量
9%
16-19
$427 交易量
6%
20+
$2,613 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks from the 2026 US-Iran crisis. Recent transits have averaged 7-12 vessels daily—far below pre-conflict norms of 120-140—due to Iran's post-ceasefire cap of 15 ships requiring permits and tolls, compounded by the US Navy's April 12 blockade announcement, which deterred a dozen vessels on April 13 alone. Lower brackets like 8-11 (25%) capture fragile truce dynamics, while higher outcomes languish below 10% amid shadow-fleet dominance and outbound bias. Traders eye potential escalation or clearance operations as key swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$5,317结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks from the 2026 US-Iran crisis. Recent transits have averaged 7-12 vessels daily—far below pre-conflict norms of 120-140—due to Iran's post-ceasefire cap of 15 ships requiring permits and tolls, compounded by the US Navy's April 12 blockade announcement, which deterred a dozen vessels on April 13 alone. Lower brackets like 8-11 (25%) capture fragile truce dynamics, while higher outcomes languish below 10% amid shadow-fleet dominance and outbound bias. Traders eye potential escalation or clearance operations as key swing factors before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
交易量
$5,317结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued average of 4-7 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 19 at 38% implied probability, reflecting persistent geopolitical risks from the 2026 US-Iran crisis. Recent transits have averaged 7-12 vessels daily—far below pre-conflict norms of 120-140—due to Iran's post-ceasefire cap of 15 ships requiring permits and tolls, compounded by the US Navy's April 12 blockade announcement, which deterred a dozen vessels on April 13 alone. Lower brackets like 8-11 (25%) capture fragile truce dynamics, while higher outcomes languish below 10% amid shadow-fleet dominance and outbound bias. Traders eye potential escalation or clearance operations as key swing factors before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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