Recent polling for the 2026 midterm congressional elections shows Republican candidates drawing between 8% and 19% support among Black voters, with most national surveys clustering in the low-to-mid teens. This range aligns with 2024 presidential results while reflecting erosion from early post-election gains, driven by economic pressures including higher Black unemployment, inflation, and affordability concerns alongside administration actions on DEI programs and voting district maps. Party identification data from Pew places Black adults at roughly 14% Republican or leaning Republican as of mid-2026. The narrow spread among market outcomes around 12-13% versus adjacent brackets captures ongoing uncertainty over turnout, regional variations, and whether modest shifts seen in some 2025-2026 surveys will hold through November. Key upcoming catalysts include final generic ballot trends and any late economic or policy developments that could widen or narrow the margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于12-13% 47%
14-15% 45%
8-9% 44%
16-17% 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
12-13%
47%
14-15%
45%
8-9%
44%
16-17%
43%
低于8%
42%
18%及以上
42%
10–11%
42%
12-13% 47%
14-15% 45%
8-9% 44%
16-17% 43%
最新
最新
2026-11-06
12-13%
$0 交易量
47%
14-15%
$0 交易量
45%
8-9%
$0 交易量
44%
16-17%
$0 交易量
43%
低于8%
$0 交易量
42%
18%及以上
$0 交易量
42%
10–11%
$0 交易量
42%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterm congressional elections shows Republican candidates drawing between 8% and 19% support among Black voters, with most national surveys clustering in the low-to-mid teens. This range aligns with 2024 presidential results while reflecting erosion from early post-election gains, driven by economic pressures including higher Black unemployment, inflation, and affordability concerns alongside administration actions on DEI programs and voting district maps. Party identification data from Pew places Black adults at roughly 14% Republican or leaning Republican as of mid-2026. The narrow spread among market outcomes around 12-13% versus adjacent brackets captures ongoing uncertainty over turnout, regional variations, and whether modest shifts seen in some 2025-2026 surveys will hold through November. Key upcoming catalysts include final generic ballot trends and any late economic or policy developments that could widen or narrow the margin.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling for the 2026 midterm congressional elections shows Republican candidates drawing between 8% and 19% support among Black voters, with most national surveys clustering in the low-to-mid teens. This range aligns with 2024 presidential results while reflecting erosion from early post-election gains, driven by economic pressures including higher Black unemployment, inflation, and affordability concerns alongside administration actions on DEI programs and voting district maps. Party identification data from Pew places Black adults at roughly 14% Republican or leaning Republican as of mid-2026. The narrow spread among market outcomes around 12-13% versus adjacent brackets captures ongoing uncertainty over turnout, regional variations, and whether modest shifts seen in some 2025-2026 surveys will hold through November. Key upcoming catalysts include final generic ballot trends and any late economic or policy developments that could widen or narrow the margin.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-07市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETRecent polling for the 2026 midterm congressional elections shows Republican candidates drawing between 8% and 19% support among Black voters, with most national surveys clustering in the low-to-mid teens. This range aligns with 2024 presidential results while reflecting erosion from early post-election gains, driven by economic pressures including higher Black unemployment, inflation, and affordability concerns alongside administration actions on DEI programs and voting district maps. Party identification data from Pew places Black adults at roughly 14% Republican or leaning Republican as of mid-2026. The narrow spread among market outcomes around 12-13% versus adjacent brackets captures ongoing uncertainty over turnout, regional variations, and whether modest shifts seen in some 2025-2026 surveys will hold through November. Key upcoming catalysts include final generic ballot trends and any late economic or policy developments that could widen or narrow the margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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