**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月18日安卡拉的最高温度？
7月18日安卡拉的最高温度？
29°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$81,255 交易量
$81,255 交易量
2026-07-18
25°C或以下
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
是
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C或更高
否
29°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$81,255 交易量
$81,255 交易量
2026-07-18
25°C或以下
$187 交易量
否
26°C
$835 交易量
否
27°C
$4,732 交易量
否
28°C
$11,682 交易量
否
29°C
$15,860 交易量
是
30°C
$26,412 交易量
否
31°C
$8,827 交易量
否
32°C
$7,251 交易量
否
33°C
$4,223 交易量
否
34°C
$1,027 交易量
否
35°C或更高
$220 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C.
Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$81,255结束日期
2026-07-18市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C.
Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$81,255结束日期
2026-07-18市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Current short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Ankara’s July 18 daily maximum near 30–31 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly flow across the Anatolian plateau.** These conditions favor strong daytime solar heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, aligning with Ankara’s July climatological average high of approximately 31 °C. Recent forecasts from BBC Weather and timeanddate.com explicitly project a 31 °C high for the 18th, while broader monthly outlooks show a 28.5–33.3 °C envelope centered on 32 °C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 29–31 °C because ensemble spreads remain narrow this close to the event, reflecting stable synoptic forcing rather than significant model disagreement or incoming frontal systems. Minor downward revisions in some runs (favoring 29–30 °C) versus slight upward potential under drier boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split among the three leading outcomes, with traders discounting extremes below 28 °C or above 32 °C given the absence of heatwave or cooling signals in the latest guidance. Official observations will resolve the contract based on the 12:00 UTC maximum at the primary Ankara station.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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