Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 2?
8°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$68,920 交易量
$68,920 交易量
2026-05-02
3°C or below
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
Yes
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C or higher
No
8°C 100.0%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
5°C <1%
$68,920 交易量
$68,920 交易量
2026-05-02
3°C or below
$1,506 交易量
No
4°C
$2,167 交易量
No
5°C
$3,108 交易量
No
6°C
$4,425 交易量
No
7°C
$12,034 交易量
No
8°C
$13,170 交易量
Yes
9°C
$7,477 交易量
No
10°C
$10,262 交易量
No
11°C
$6,064 交易量
No
12°C
$4,297 交易量
No
13°C or higher
$4,409 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$68,920结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$68,920结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) confirm Ankara's highest temperature on May 2 reached exactly 8°C at the central station, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid a rare early-May cold snap. An Arctic airmass intrusion, combined with persistent cloud cover, light showers, and northerly winds, suppressed daytime heating well below the 20–22°C climatological average for the date. Ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models had accurately converged on 8–9°C in the lead-up, reflecting strong trader alignment with verified data. Only a formal data revision by MGM—such as station equipment recalibration—could realistically challenge this resolution, though such events are exceedingly rare.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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