Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月16日北京气温最高？
4月16日北京气温最高？
21°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 交易量
$131,519 交易量
2026-04-16
18°C或以下
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C或以上
否
21°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$131,519 交易量
$131,519 交易量
2026-04-16
18°C或以下
$20,031 交易量
否
19°C
$8,139 交易量
否
20°C
$10,229 交易量
否
21°C
$23,751 交易量
是
22°C
$15,556 交易量
否
23°C
$12,331 交易量
否
24°C
$18,952 交易量
否
25°C
$5,513 交易量
否
26°C
$7,635 交易量
否
27°C
$4,266 交易量
否
28°C或以上
$5,116 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
交易量
$131,519结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$131,519结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:42 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 21°C high temperature at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 16, backed by real-time observational data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and airport METAR reports showing a midday peak of 21°C under persistent light rain and overcast skies. Numerical weather prediction models, including short-range ECMWF and GFS ensembles updated within the last 24 hours, align on limited daytime heating due to cloud cover, northerly winds, and frontal passage, consistent with mid-April climatology where Beijing averages 18–22°C highs. As evening approaches with falling temperatures, further warming is improbable; realistic challenges would require an abrupt clearing and solar insolation spike before sunset, though current infrared satellite imagery indicates sustained cloudiness precluding this scenario. Final CMA daily summary expected post-midnight UTC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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