Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (57%) to a 31°C high in Beijing on September 11, driven by the latest consensus from official forecasts showing predominantly clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime following recent cooler air advection. Model guidance indicates maximum daytime heating near or slightly above seasonal norms of 27°C, with minimal cloud cover and low humidity supporting efficient solar insolation. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration outlooks project around 29°C, while some ensemble runs reach 31–32°C, explaining the market tilt toward the upper end of the narrow range. Resolution hinges on the precise official maximum recorded at Beijing stations, with limited further model updates expected before the period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月11日北京气温最高？
9月11日北京气温最高？
31°C 56%
32°C 24%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
最新
$10,777 交易量
最新
$10,777 交易量
2026-09-11
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
16%
31°C
56%
32°C
24%
33°C
5%
34°C
<1%
35°C或更高
<1%
31°C 56%
32°C 24%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
最新
$10,777 交易量
最新
$10,777 交易量
2026-09-11
25°C或以下
$394 交易量
<1%
26°C
$613 交易量
<1%
27°C
$945 交易量
2%
28°C
$604 交易量
2%
29°C
$928 交易量
4%
30°C
$642 交易量
16%
31°C
$3,270 交易量
56%
32°C
$1,228 交易量
24%
33°C
$1,642 交易量
5%
34°C
$169 交易量
<1%
35°C或更高
$343 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (57%) to a 31°C high in Beijing on September 11, driven by the latest consensus from official forecasts showing predominantly clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime following recent cooler air advection. Model guidance indicates maximum daytime heating near or slightly above seasonal norms of 27°C, with minimal cloud cover and low humidity supporting efficient solar insolation. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration outlooks project around 29°C, while some ensemble runs reach 31–32°C, explaining the market tilt toward the upper end of the narrow range. Resolution hinges on the precise official maximum recorded at Beijing stations, with limited further model updates expected before the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$10,777结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (57%) to a 31°C high in Beijing on September 11, driven by the latest consensus from official forecasts showing predominantly clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime following recent cooler air advection. Model guidance indicates maximum daytime heating near or slightly above seasonal norms of 27°C, with minimal cloud cover and low humidity supporting efficient solar insolation. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration outlooks project around 29°C, while some ensemble runs reach 31–32°C, explaining the market tilt toward the upper end of the narrow range. Resolution hinges on the precise official maximum recorded at Beijing stations, with limited further model updates expected before the period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,777结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (57%) to a 31°C high in Beijing on September 11, driven by the latest consensus from official forecasts showing predominantly clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure regime following recent cooler air advection. Model guidance indicates maximum daytime heating near or slightly above seasonal norms of 27°C, with minimal cloud cover and low humidity supporting efficient solar insolation. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration outlooks project around 29°C, while some ensemble runs reach 31–32°C, explaining the market tilt toward the upper end of the narrow range. Resolution hinges on the precise official maximum recorded at Beijing stations, with limited further model updates expected before the period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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