**Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate overcast skies and scattered showers or drizzle around June 24, moderating daytime highs to the mid-to-upper 20s °C and supporting the market's tight clustering around 27°C (17.5%) and 28°C (15.5%).** Multiple models show surface temperatures peaking near 26–29°C under persistent cloud cover and light northeasterly winds, with precipitation likelihoods of 20–60% suppressing solar heating and preventing stronger diurnal rises typical of clearer June conditions. Historical June averages of 28–30°C highs are tempered here by a likely transient moisture surge or weak frontal influence, which increases boundary-layer humidity and reduces maximum temperatures by 2–4°C compared to dry scenarios. Forecast spread arises from differences in modeled cloud thickness, timing of any rain bands, and boundary-layer mixing; drier or partly sunny breaks could push readings to 29–30°C, while heavier or earlier showers favor 25–26°C or lower. These near-term variables—updated model runs from agencies tracking East Asian monsoon progression—drive the dispersed probabilities, with lower odds on extremes reflecting the low likelihood of clear, hot conditions or unseasonably cool outbreaks this close to the summer solstice.