Current numerical weather prediction models, including runs from the China Meteorological Administration, indicate a likely daily high of 30–32°C in Chengdu on May 23 under the influence of a subtropical high-pressure system and moist southwesterly flow across the Sichuan basin. The market’s heavy weighting toward 30°C reflects this model consensus and the narrow historical distribution around those values, with limited upside risk from extreme intensification absent major synoptic shifts. Official observations from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine the exact recorded maximum, and any late-day convective activity or measurement adjustments could theoretically alter the outcome, though ensemble guidance shows low variance for this date.