Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 2?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$43,698 交易量
$43,698 交易量
2026-05-02
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$43,698 交易量
$43,698 交易量
2026-05-02
23°C or below
$1,653 交易量
No
24°C
$1,159 交易量
No
25°C
$1,877 交易量
No
26°C
$4,433 交易量
No
27°C
$5,343 交易量
No
28°C
$5,913 交易量
No
29°C
$4,466 交易量
Yes
30°C
$4,108 交易量
No
31°C
$4,731 交易量
No
32°C
$4,787 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$5,229 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
交易量
$43,698结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$43,698结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:34 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a 29°C high temperature in Guangzhou today, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts and ECMWF/GFS ensemble model consensus projecting peaks of 28–29°C at Baiyun International Airport amid persistent cloud cover, 80% humidity, and scattered showers that limit surface heating and convective potential. Midday observations confirm 27–28°C readings, aligning with early May climatological averages of 29.3°C during subtropical monsoon onset, when overcast conditions typically cap daytime highs. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing enabling brief solar insolation spikes or urban heat island amplification pushing briefly to 30°C, though robust model agreement and stable atmospheric patterns render this unlikely; track hourly airport METAR data for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题