Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 4?
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$84,525 交易量
$84,525 交易量
2026-05-04
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$84,525 交易量
$84,525 交易量
2026-05-04
10°C or below
$5,076 交易量
No
11°C
$3,406 交易量
No
12°C
$4,454 交易量
No
13°C
$11,238 交易量
No
14°C
$10,170 交易量
Yes
15°C
$32,613 交易量
No
16°C
$7,914 交易量
No
17°C
$2,976 交易量
No
18°C
$2,405 交易量
No
19°C
$2,193 交易量
No
20°C or higher
$2,081 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
交易量
$84,525结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$84,525结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Official NOAA observations from Istanbul Airport confirm the highest temperature on May 4 reached exactly 14°C, driving the market's 100% implied probability for that outcome and reflecting traders' consensus on verified meteorological data. This unusually cool reading, 6–8°C below May seasonal norms of around 20–22°C, stems from a Black Sea-sourced low-pressure system that triggered a rare early-May cold snap across northwest Turkey, with cloudy skies, gusty northerlies, and scattered showers suppressing daytime heating. Turkish State Meteorological Service reports align with these station measurements, showing highs in the 12–15°C range regionally. Scenarios challenging this would require rare post-verification data corrections, such as sensor recalibrations, though official records rarely shift after initial reporting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题