Latest forecasts from Indonesia's BMKG and international models like ECMWF and GFS converge on Jakarta highs around 32°C for April 18, reflecting trader consensus with 32°C at 34% implied probability edging 33°C at 26%, amid closely matched outcomes signaling model uncertainty. Typical April climatology averages 31°C highs during the transition to drier dry season, boosted by Jakarta's urban heat island effect adding 1–2°C from concrete and reduced vegetation, under ENSO-neutral conditions favoring standard warmth. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread—GFS leaning cooler near 31°C with possible sea breeze moderation, ECMWF warmer at 33°C under clearer skies—and potential afternoon clouds limiting peaks. BMKG daily updates through April 17 will clarify, as official station measurements resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 18?
Highest temperature in Jakarta on April 18?
32°C 34%
33°C 27%
30°C 26%
31°C 17%
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
17%
31°C
17%
32°C
34%
33°C
27%
34°C
15%
35°C
8%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
32°C 34%
33°C 27%
30°C 26%
31°C 17%
27°C or below
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
17%
31°C
17%
32°C
34%
33°C
27%
34°C
15%
35°C
8%
36°C
3%
37°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Apr 16, 2026, 1:32 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Halim Perdanakusuma Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/id/jakarta/WIHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest forecasts from Indonesia's BMKG and international models like ECMWF and GFS converge on Jakarta highs around 32°C for April 18, reflecting trader consensus with 32°C at 34% implied probability edging 33°C at 26%, amid closely matched outcomes signaling model uncertainty. Typical April climatology averages 31°C highs during the transition to drier dry season, boosted by Jakarta's urban heat island effect adding 1–2°C from concrete and reduced vegetation, under ENSO-neutral conditions favoring standard warmth. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread—GFS leaning cooler near 31°C with possible sea breeze moderation, ECMWF warmer at 33°C under clearer skies—and potential afternoon clouds limiting peaks. BMKG daily updates through April 17 will clarify, as official station measurements resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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