**Short-range forecasts for Jeddah on June 26 align closely with the long-term June average high of approximately 36°C, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 36–38°C.** Coastal moderation from the Red Sea generates afternoon sea breezes that frequently cap afternoon peaks, while strong solar insolation and typically clear skies support mid-30s readings. The National Center for Meteorology seasonal outlook indicates temperatures 1–1.5°C above normal across the Makkah region, consistent with recent observed highs of 34–37°C. Differences among leading outcomes stem primarily from ensemble variations in boundary-layer mixing, wind speed, and any late-day convective development that could either enhance or suppress the daily maximum, with updated model runs expected to refine the range before resolution.