Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 18, with 33°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid NiMet's projections of warmer-than-average conditions during the rainy season onset. Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport—the market's resolution source—typically record April highs near the 32.1°C climatological average, but recent NiMet outlooks highlight increased heat stress from high humidity and variable thunderstorms, potentially capping peaks via reduced solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads (e.g., yr.no at 33°C, BBC at 34°C), urban heat island amplification in Lagos, and sea breeze moderation; daily updates from NiMet expected before resolution could shift odds further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lagos on April 18?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 18?
33°C 24%
32°C 20%
34°C 19%
31°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
3%
31°C
14%
32°C
20%
33°C
28%
34°C
19%
35°C
14%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
4%
33°C 24%
32°C 20%
34°C 19%
31°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
27°C or below
$5,830 交易量
<1%
28°C
$484 交易量
2%
29°C
$349 交易量
3%
30°C
$89 交易量
3%
31°C
$94 交易量
14%
32°C
$0 交易量
20%
33°C
$5 交易量
28%
34°C
$5 交易量
19%
35°C
$2 交易量
14%
36°C
$186 交易量
2%
37°C or higher
$110 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 18, with 33°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid NiMet's projections of warmer-than-average conditions during the rainy season onset. Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport—the market's resolution source—typically record April highs near the 32.1°C climatological average, but recent NiMet outlooks highlight increased heat stress from high humidity and variable thunderstorms, potentially capping peaks via reduced solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads (e.g., yr.no at 33°C, BBC at 34°C), urban heat island amplification in Lagos, and sea breeze moderation; daily updates from NiMet expected before resolution could shift odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ET
交易量
$7,155结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 18, with 33°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid NiMet's projections of warmer-than-average conditions during the rainy season onset. Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport—the market's resolution source—typically record April highs near the 32.1°C climatological average, but recent NiMet outlooks highlight increased heat stress from high humidity and variable thunderstorms, potentially capping peaks via reduced solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads (e.g., yr.no at 33°C, BBC at 34°C), urban heat island amplification in Lagos, and sea breeze moderation; daily updates from NiMet expected before resolution could shift odds further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$7,155结束日期
2026-04-18市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecasts for Lagos' highest temperature on April 18, with 33°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid NiMet's projections of warmer-than-average conditions during the rainy season onset. Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport—the market's resolution source—typically record April highs near the 32.1°C climatological average, but recent NiMet outlooks highlight increased heat stress from high humidity and variable thunderstorms, potentially capping peaks via reduced solar insolation. Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads (e.g., yr.no at 33°C, BBC at 34°C), urban heat island amplification in Lagos, and sea breeze moderation; daily updates from NiMet expected before resolution could shift odds further.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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