Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Milan on May 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 12?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$117,923 交易量
$117,923 交易量
2026-05-12
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$117,923 交易量
$117,923 交易量
2026-05-12
15°C or below
$10,163 交易量
No
16°C
$17,313 交易量
No
17°C
$12,467 交易量
No
18°C
$10,261 交易量
No
19°C
$16,798 交易量
No
20°C
$15,933 交易量
Yes
21°C
$7,717 交易量
No
22°C
$8,444 交易量
No
23°C
$7,713 交易量
No
24°C
$4,775 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$6,340 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
交易量
$117,923结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$117,923结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Milan on May 12, driven by high-resolution forecast consensus from ARPA Lombardia, ECMWF, and Aeronautica Militare models showing daytime peaks at 20-20.5°C amid post-frontal cooling after May 11's rain and hail. Northerly winds and partial cloud cover limit solar insolation, aligning with current observations at Milano Linate station nearing this cap by mid-afternoon. This positioning below May climatological averages (~22°C) reflects stable high-pressure ridging suppressing heat advection. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing boundary-layer mixing for a 21°C outlier or station microclimate variations, though model ensembles exhibit minimal spread; end-of-day official measurements will confirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题