Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.