Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Paris on May 9?
Highest temperature in Paris on May 9?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 交易量
$116,646 交易量
2026-05-09
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$116,646 交易量
$116,646 交易量
2026-05-09
18°C or below
$5,010 交易量
No
19°C
$5,908 交易量
No
20°C
$6,873 交易量
No
21°C
$8,930 交易量
No
22°C
$16,622 交易量
No
23°C
$15,264 交易量
No
24°C
$18,590 交易量
Yes
25°C
$17,045 交易量
No
26°C
$11,746 交易量
No
27°C
$5,301 交易量
No
28°C or higher
$5,355 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$116,646结束日期
2026-05-09市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$116,646结束日期
2026-05-09市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 24°C in Paris on May 9, confirmed by official Météo-France observations at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station—the market's resolution source—which recorded a daytime maximum of 24°C amid sunny intervals transitioning to cloudier conditions, light winds, and no precipitation. This outcome aligned precisely with pre-event forecast consensus from ECMWF, NOAA GFS, and Météo-France AROME ensembles clustering at 23–25°C, elevated 5°C above the historical May 9 norm of 19°C under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge over northern France. Realistic challenges, such as rare sensor recalibration or late data revisions, proved negligible, with intraday peaks already hitting 24°C by early afternoon validating the positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题