Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月12日广州气温最高？
7月12日广州气温最高？
39°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$59,626 交易量
$59,626 交易量
2026-07-12
31°C或以下
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35℃
否
36°C
否
37°C
否
38°C
否
39°C
是
40°C
否
41°C或更高
否
39°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$59,626 交易量
$59,626 交易量
2026-07-12
31°C或以下
$1,806 交易量
否
32°C
$1,536 交易量
否
33°C
$495 交易量
否
34°C
$2,336 交易量
否
35℃
$4,315 交易量
否
36°C
$5,559 交易量
否
37°C
$5,914 交易量
否
38°C
$10,125 交易量
否
39°C
$9,961 交易量
是
40°C
$9,467 交易量
否
41°C或更高
$8,113 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$59,626结束日期
2026-07-12市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$59,626结束日期
2026-07-12市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight a warm, humid subtropical airmass over southern China as the main driver behind trader focus on peak temperatures near the upper 30s. Persistent high pressure and light winds favor strong daytime heating in Guangzhou's urban environment, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms could enhance cloud cover and cap readings depending on timing and intensity. Model spread arises from uncertainties in precipitation timing, boundary-layer moisture, and local land-sea breezes, which historically produce day-to-day variations of 2–4°C in July. These factors create the observed wide probability distribution, with traders weighting outcomes based on the latest model runs and observed trends of 33–35°C highs earlier in the month. Updated forecasts ahead of July 12 will likely refine the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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