Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 32–34°C for Chengdu’s maximum on August 4 because short-range models from AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate a 32–33°C peak under partly cloudy skies with scattered showers. Persistent high humidity and the Sichuan basin’s typical summer monsoon flow favor afternoon convection that caps daytime warming, while any delay in precipitation or brief clearing could allow brief insolation to push readings toward 34°C. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 31–32°C, making the tight spread between outcomes reflect uncertainty in exact shower timing and cloud optical depth rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Updated NWP runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these boundaries ahead of resolution.