Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and extended models indicate Busan daily highs near 30–32°C for August 4, driven by the North Pacific High’s influence and elevated sea-surface temperatures around the peninsula that sustain warm, humid southerly flow. Ensemble guidance shows limited model spread, with the primary variables being afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could cap or enhance peak readings by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima in Busan average near 30°C, so the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 33–35°C reflects traders weighting the upper end of current guidance while acknowledging typical forecast uncertainty ranges of ±1–2°C this far ahead. Updated model runs and KMA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact maximum.