Short-range forecasts from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate overnight lows in Seoul and Incheon on August 4 will most likely settle near 27°C, driven by persistent summer heat, elevated dew points, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent model runs show minimal cooling from any passing weak fronts, consistent with the ongoing heatwave that produced record daytime highs and tropical-night minima above 25°C in late July and early August. Trader consensus around 27°C (61.5%) and adjacent 26–28°C outcomes reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers that would require an unexpected surge in onshore flow or clearer skies for enhanced cooling. Updated KMA briefings and model consensus through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月4日首尔(仁川)气温最低?
27℃ 69%
28°C 28%
26°C 20%
25°C 6%
22°C或以下
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
28%
27℃
58%
28°C
28%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C或以上
<1%
27℃ 69%
28°C 28%
26°C 20%
25°C 6%
22°C或以下
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
28%
27℃
58%
28°C
28%
29°C
6%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Short-range forecasts from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate overnight lows in Seoul and Incheon on August 4 will most likely settle near 27°C, driven by persistent summer heat, elevated dew points, and limited nocturnal radiative cooling amid high humidity and urban heat-island effects. Recent model runs show minimal cooling from any passing weak fronts, consistent with the ongoing heatwave that produced record daytime highs and tropical-night minima above 25°C in late July and early August. Trader consensus around 27°C (61.5%) and adjacent 26–28°C outcomes reflects tight clustering in ensemble guidance, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers that would require an unexpected surge in onshore flow or clearer skies for enhanced cooling. Updated KMA briefings and model consensus through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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