Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 6?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$119,524 交易量
$119,524 交易量
2026-05-06
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$119,524 交易量
$119,524 交易量
2026-05-06
22°C or below
$32,001 交易量
No
23°C
$9,881 交易量
No
24°C
$39,688 交易量
No
25°C
$19,808 交易量
Yes
26°C
$7,123 交易量
No
27°C
$4,121 交易量
No
28°C
$2,225 交易量
No
29°C
$2,027 交易量
No
30°C
$1,562 交易量
No
31°C
$519 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$570 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET
交易量
$119,524结束日期
2026-05-06市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$119,524结束日期
2026-05-06市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 12:36 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of exactly 25°C in Qingdao on May 6, driven by official observations at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD), where hourly METAR reports peaked at 25°C around midday before cooling to 19°C by late afternoon amid southerly winds and clear skies. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasts aligned closely with this outcome, showing model consensus for a 25°C high against May climatological norms of 20-22°C, influenced by warm air advection over the Shandong Peninsula. Scenarios challenging this include an improbable late-day solar heating surge exceeding 26°C before sunset, though declining insolation and evening onshore flow make higher readings unlikely; final CMA daily summary expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题