Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月1日上海气温最高？
5月1日上海气温最高？
25°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 交易量
$175,677 交易量
2026-05-01
19°C或以下
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
是
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C或更高
否
25°C 100.0%
19°C或以下 <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$175,677 交易量
$175,677 交易量
2026-05-01
19°C或以下
$5,396 交易量
否
20°C
$4,274 交易量
否
21°C
$8,572 交易量
否
22°C
$22,531 交易量
否
23°C
$23,331 交易量
否
24°C
$30,999 交易量
否
25°C
$21,867 交易量
是
26°C
$23,097 交易量
否
27°C
$13,987 交易量
否
28°C
$10,944 交易量
否
29°C或更高
$10,677 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$175,677结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$175,677结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 25°C at Shanghai's Xujiahui observatory—the market's key resolution station—as reflected in the 100% implied probability, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) midday forecast update projecting exactly this peak under persistent overcast skies and light winds that suppress solar heating. This aligns with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clustering at 24–26°C, early-morning observations near 14°C, and May climatological norms around 23°C amid East China's spring patterns. Current readings, including mid-afternoon peaks at approximately 25°C (77°F), reinforce this positioning. Unexpected clearing could enable brief spikes to 26°C, while increased cloudiness or northerly flows might cap it below; final intraday observations from CMA will resolve by evening.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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