Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月10日上海气温最高？
5月10日上海气温最高？
24°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 交易量
$213,890 交易量
2026-05-10
18°C或以下
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
是
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C或更高
否
24°C 100.0%
18°C或以下 <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$213,890 交易量
$213,890 交易量
2026-05-10
18°C或以下
$7,194 交易量
否
19°C
$3,390 交易量
否
20°C
$4,979 交易量
否
21°C
$12,239 交易量
否
22°C
$13,102 交易量
否
23°C
$21,955 交易量
否
24°C
$26,515 交易量
是
25°C
$53,673 交易量
否
26°C
$39,298 交易量
否
27°C
$13,528 交易量
否
28°C或更高
$18,016 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$213,890结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$213,890结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 24°C at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on May 10, driven by official hourly observations from the station and METAR reports confirming a midday peak of 24°C under persistent overcast skies that suppressed solar heating. China Meteorological Administration data and recent bulletins align with this, showing temperatures falling to 19°C by evening, well below initial forecasts of 25–26°C amid typical May cloudiness and light winds. This reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with verified measurements over model projections. Realistic challenges would require a rare official revision upward from Pudong records or undocumented late-afternoon spike before midnight resolution, both improbable given current cooling trends and climatological norms for early May highs averaging 24–25°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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