Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 11?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 交易量
$52,348 交易量
2026-05-11
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$52,348 交易量
$52,348 交易量
2026-05-11
21°C or below
$175 交易量
No
22°C
$290 交易量
No
23°C
$1,320 交易量
No
24°C
$1,143 交易量
No
25°C
$1,202 交易量
No
26°C
$13,436 交易量
No
27°C
$7,726 交易量
No
28°C
$8,346 交易量
Yes
29°C
$6,834 交易量
No
30°C
$7,243 交易量
No
31°C or higher
$4,633 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET
交易量
$52,348结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$52,348结束日期
2026-05-11市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 2:38 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a highest temperature of 28°C in Shenzhen today, anchored by the Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau's latest forecast of persistent overcast skies and southeast winds at force 2-3, capping the diurnal temperature range amid high humidity levels above 80%. Current METAR observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm morning temperatures of 23–25°C under overcast conditions (OVC026), limiting solar heating in this early-May subtropical climate where monthly average highs hover near 29.5°C. International models like AccuWeather project 29°C, but traders factor in standard rounding and reduced insolation for the official 28°C peak. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing to enhance shortwave radiation, potentially nudging the high to 29°C before evening; hourly airport updates through sunset will confirm.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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