Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 交易量
$58,535 交易量
2026-05-12
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 交易量
$58,535 交易量
2026-05-12
23°C or below
$2,316 交易量
No
24°C
$1,381 交易量
No
25°C
$2,065 交易量
No
26°C
$2,286 交易量
No
27°C
$3,220 交易量
No
28°C
$5,157 交易量
No
29°C
$19,130 交易量
No
30°C
$7,915 交易量
Yes
31°C
$4,856 交易量
No
32°C
$5,698 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$4,512 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
交易量
$58,535结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$58,535结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题