Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 2?
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 交易量
$145,833 交易量
2026-05-02
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$145,833 交易量
$145,833 交易量
2026-05-02
24°C or below
$1,214 交易量
No
25°C
$2,459 交易量
No
26°C
$2,864 交易量
No
27°C
$4,109 交易量
No
28°C
$7,197 交易量
No
29°C
$5,709 交易量
No
30°C
$12,369 交易量
No
31°C
$66,454 交易量
No
32°C
$18,258 交易量
Yes
33°C
$12,422 交易量
No
34°C or higher
$12,777 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$145,833结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$145,833结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 32°C in Taipei on May 2, driven by real-time observational data from the Central Weather Administration's (CWA) Taipei Songshan Airport station—the market's official resolution source—which recorded an afternoon peak of 32°C under mostly clear skies and light winds. This outcome exceeds the CWA's initial 27–30°C forecast due to enhanced subsidence from a subtropical high-pressure ridge, minimal cloud interference, and urban heat island amplification in the Taipei basin, consistent with upper-end GFS and ECMWF model runs. With sunset at approximately 18:24 local time and post-peak cooling underway, realistic challenges would require a rare data revision or anomalous late-evening surge, both improbable given diurnal temperature cycles. CWA end-of-day reports will finalize resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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