Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment on SpaceX's potential IPO raise size, with the $50-60 billion bucket leading at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by $40-50 billion and $70-80 billion at 15.5% each, reflecting uncertainty over timing and structure amid the company's soaring private valuation. A December 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at approximately $350 billion—up from $210 billion in June—fueled by Starlink's projected $12 billion-plus annualized revenue and accelerating subscriber growth to over 4 million, yet Elon Musk's insistence on delaying a full SpaceX IPO until Mars mission milestones tempers bets on massive raises. Key swing factors include prospective Starlink spin-off details, regulatory approvals for satellite constellations, and broader equity market appetite for high-valuation tech listings, with no filing imminent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于50-60B 20%
40-50B 16%
70-80B 16%
60-70B 14%
NEW
$25,180 交易量
NEW
$25,180 交易量
<40B
6%
40-50B
16%
50-60B
20%
60-70B
14%
70-80B
16%
80-90B
13%
90-100B
9%
100-110B
4%
110-120B
4%
1200亿美元以上
6%
50-60B 20%
40-50B 16%
70-80B 16%
60-70B 14%
NEW
$25,180 交易量
NEW
$25,180 交易量
<40B
$2,374 交易量
6%
40-50B
$1,431 交易量
16%
50-60B
$2,026 交易量
20%
60-70B
$2,295 交易量
14%
70-80B
$2,855 交易量
16%
80-90B
$1,865 交易量
13%
90-100B
$2,579 交易量
9%
100-110B
$2,916 交易量
4%
110-120B
$2,049 交易量
4%
1200亿美元以上
$4,809 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$25,180市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$25,180市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show fragmented sentiment on SpaceX's potential IPO raise size, with the $50-60 billion bucket leading at 19.5% implied probability, closely trailed by $40-50 billion and $70-80 billion at 15.5% each, reflecting uncertainty over timing and structure amid the company's soaring private valuation. A December 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at approximately $350 billion—up from $210 billion in June—fueled by Starlink's projected $12 billion-plus annualized revenue and accelerating subscriber growth to over 4 million, yet Elon Musk's insistence on delaying a full SpaceX IPO until Mars mission milestones tempers bets on massive raises. Key swing factors include prospective Starlink spin-off details, regulatory approvals for satellite constellations, and broader equity market appetite for high-valuation tech listings, with no filing imminent.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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