Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
1.25–1.29ºC 30%
1.15–1.19ºC 30%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
30%
1.20–1.24ºC
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
30%
>1.29ºC
41%
1.10–1.14ºC 32%
1.25–1.29ºC 30%
1.15–1.19ºC 30%
1.20–1.24ºC 28%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$5 交易量
12%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 交易量
32%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 交易量
30%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 交易量
33%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 交易量
30%
>1.29ºC
$270 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$446结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$446结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% chance of development by May-July 2026, represent the main catalyst supporting trader consensus around 1.20–1.29°C global mean near-surface temperature anomalies for June relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Recent model runs show rapid warming in Niño3.4, consistent with the long-term anthropogenic trend that has lifted recent June values, though ENSO-neutral persistence early in the month and model spread in peak strength introduce uncertainty across adjacent bins. Official updates from the Climate Prediction Center on June 11 and initial June observational data will refine these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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