Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月3日东京最低气温？
5月3日东京最低气温？
17°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 交易量
$25,648 交易量
2026-05-03
12°C或以下
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
是
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C或更高
否
17°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$25,648 交易量
$25,648 交易量
2026-05-03
12°C或以下
$2,053 交易量
否
13°C
$714 交易量
否
14°C
$6,119 交易量
否
15°C
$4,006 交易量
否
16°C
$2,433 交易量
否
17°C
$6,838 交易量
是
18°C
$874 交易量
否
19°C
$693 交易量
否
20°C
$1,002 交易量
否
21°C
$328 交易量
否
22°C或更高
$588 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$25,648结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,648结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to a lowest temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 3, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data confirming an early-morning minimum of 17°C at key stations amid a stable high-pressure system. Partly cloudy skies, light winds around 5-10 km/h, and urban heat island effects have prevented further radiational cooling, with afternoon temperatures climbing to 23°C. This aligns with above-normal May patterns, where historical daily minima average 14-15°C but current model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts like ECMWF show consensus for mild overnight conditions. Realistic challenges include an unexpected late-evening cold air advection or station-specific measurement anomaly, though diurnal heating and proximity to resolution make shifts improbable; final JMA daily summary expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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