Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月9日东京最低气温？
5月9日东京最低气温？
17°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 交易量
$31,556 交易量
2026-05-09
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
是
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
否
17°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 交易量
$31,556 交易量
2026-05-09
13°C或以下
$6,574 交易量
否
14°C
$1,308 交易量
否
15°C
$3,475 交易量
否
16°C
$1,999 交易量
否
17°C
$3,410 交易量
是
18°C
$3,140 交易量
否
19°C
$3,911 交易量
否
20°C
$1,530 交易量
否
21°C
$1,937 交易量
否
22°C
$2,543 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$1,728 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$31,556结束日期
2026-05-09市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$31,556结束日期
2026-05-09市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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