Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, with the Assembly of Experts formalizing the succession amid ongoing conflict. Trader assessments of any near-term departure center on his reported injuries from those strikes, extreme security measures keeping him at an undisclosed domestic location, and continued direction of policy through statements and audio-linked meetings without verified exit. Iranian sources emphasize his active decision-making role on wartime posture and negotiations, while external reports note limited public visibility and courier-based communications. Ceasefire talks, IRGC operations, and regime stability pressures through mid-2026 represent the main variables that could alter movement timelines, with no confirmed departure recorded to date.