Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei in late February. Since then, he has made no verified public appearances, with statements delivered via state media and widespread reporting of possible injuries sustained in the attacks, ongoing hiding for security reasons, or limited capacity to govern amid active conflict. These factors, combined with domestic protests, IRGC influence, and external military pressures, shape trader assessments of exit risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through mid-2026 could further affect implied probabilities around departure timelines or conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,976,954 交易量
2026-06-30
6月30日
1%
$1,976,954 交易量
6月30日
$566,724 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei in late February. Since then, he has made no verified public appearances, with statements delivered via state media and widespread reporting of possible injuries sustained in the attacks, ongoing hiding for security reasons, or limited capacity to govern amid active conflict. These factors, combined with domestic protests, IRGC influence, and external military pressures, shape trader assessments of exit risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through mid-2026 could further affect implied probabilities around departure timelines or conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
交易量
$1,976,954结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei in late February. Since then, he has made no verified public appearances, with statements delivered via state media and widespread reporting of possible injuries sustained in the attacks, ongoing hiding for security reasons, or limited capacity to govern amid active conflict. These factors, combined with domestic protests, IRGC influence, and external military pressures, shape trader assessments of exit risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through mid-2026 could further affect implied probabilities around departure timelines or conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,976,954结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father Ali Khamenei in late February. Since then, he has made no verified public appearances, with statements delivered via state media and widespread reporting of possible injuries sustained in the attacks, ongoing hiding for security reasons, or limited capacity to govern amid active conflict. These factors, combined with domestic protests, IRGC influence, and external military pressures, shape trader assessments of exit risks. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through mid-2026 could further affect implied probabilities around departure timelines or conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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