The Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in June 2026 to review AR-15 and assault-weapons bans in Illinois and Connecticut cases has driven trader expectations that the justices will strike them down. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has broadened Second Amendment protections in recent rulings, four justices have already signaled that these rifles qualify as arms in common use by law-abiding citizens. The Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief reinforcing that view added further momentum ahead of fall arguments. While Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain key swing votes and a final decision is months away, the Court’s recent pattern of expanding gun rights under the Bruen framework has produced strong market consensus around invalidation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于SCOTUS宣布AR-15禁令无效？
SCOTUS宣布AR-15禁令无效？
是
85% 概率
最新
最新
2027-08-01
是
85% 概率
最新
最新
2027-08-01
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in June 2026 to review AR-15 and assault-weapons bans in Illinois and Connecticut cases has driven trader expectations that the justices will strike them down. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has broadened Second Amendment protections in recent rulings, four justices have already signaled that these rifles qualify as arms in common use by law-abiding citizens. The Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief reinforcing that view added further momentum ahead of fall arguments. While Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain key swing votes and a final decision is months away, the Court’s recent pattern of expanding gun rights under the Bruen framework has produced strong market consensus around invalidation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
交易量
$522结束日期
2027-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in June 2026 to review AR-15 and assault-weapons bans in Illinois and Connecticut cases has driven trader expectations that the justices will strike them down. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has broadened Second Amendment protections in recent rulings, four justices have already signaled that these rifles qualify as arms in common use by law-abiding citizens. The Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief reinforcing that view added further momentum ahead of fall arguments. While Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain key swing votes and a final decision is months away, the Court’s recent pattern of expanding gun rights under the Bruen framework has produced strong market consensus around invalidation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$522结束日期
2027-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 4:56 PM ETThe Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in June 2026 to review AR-15 and assault-weapons bans in Illinois and Connecticut cases has driven trader expectations that the justices will strike them down. With a 6-3 conservative majority that has broadened Second Amendment protections in recent rulings, four justices have already signaled that these rifles qualify as arms in common use by law-abiding citizens. The Trump Justice Department’s September amicus brief reinforcing that view added further momentum ahead of fall arguments. While Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett remain key swing votes and a final decision is months away, the Court’s recent pattern of expanding gun rights under the Bruen framework has produced strong market consensus around invalidation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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