Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$14,115 交易量
$14,115 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$14,115 交易量
$14,115 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
交易量
$14,115结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$14,115结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects 97.5% implied probability for "No," driven by the confirmed absence of critical red-level incidents at Discord and Cloudflare through the March 31, 2026, resolution window, per their official status dashboards (discordstatus.com and cloudflarestatus.com). Although AWS experienced a qualifying "disrupted" severity outage in early March—stemming from drone strikes on ME-CENTRAL-1 data centers impacting EC2, S3, and DynamoDB—the parlay requires all three services to hit thresholds simultaneously, which failed due to clean records at the other providers. This skin-in-the-game assessment prioritizes verifiable dashboard data over speculation. Realistic tail risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or UMA Optimistic Oracle disputes, though historical precedents favor prompt "No" resolution absent new evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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