Magnus Carlsen holds the clearest edge in the Titled Tuesday field thanks to his recent August 4 victory and consistent elite results in online blitz, reflected in the market's 22.5% implied probability. Hikaru Nakamura sits second at 15.5% on the strength of his unmatched historical win total and sustained high-level participation. The remaining probabilities stay tightly clustered around 5% because the event draws dozens of 2600-plus grandmasters, producing high variance where form, pairing luck, and single-day performance can elevate any strong contender. Recent results show Carlsen, Nakamura, and players like Arjun Erigaisi frequently finishing near the top, yet the depth of the field prevents any single participant from commanding a dominant share of trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Magnus Carlsen 23%
Hikaru Nakamura 16%
Fabiano Caruana 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
23%
Hikaru Nakamura
16%
Fabiano Caruana
9%
Wesley So
9%
Ding Liren
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Tuomas Turunen
9%
Javokhir Sindarov
9%
Levon Aronian
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Volen Dyulgerov
9%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
9%
Alireza Firouzja
5%
Dincer Tasdogen
5%
Faustino Oro
5%
Frederik Svane
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Alexander Grischuk
5%
Aleksandar Indjic
5%
Aleksandr Shimanov
5%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
5%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
5%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Wei Yi
5%
Vladimir Fedoseev
5%
Christopher Yoo
5%
Awonder Liang
5%
Andrew Tang
5%
Aravindh Chithambaram
5%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Benjamin Bok
5%
Andrey Esipenko
5%
Bardiya Daneshvar
5%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
5%
Dmitry Andreikin
5%
David Anton
5%
Dau Khuong Duy
5%
Hans Niemann
5%
Haowen Xue
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Jules Moussard
5%
Jeffery Xiong
5%
Le Tuan Minh
5%
Matthias Bluebaum
5%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
5%
Pranav Venkatesh
5%
Renato Terry Lujan
5%
Rudik Makarian
5%
Rasmus Svane
5%
Sam Sevian
5%
Sergey Sklokin
5%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
5%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Haik Martirosyan
5%
Nihal Sarin
5%
Nikolas Theodorou
5%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
5%
Parham Maghsoodloo
5%
Pranesh Munirethinam
5%
Magnus Carlsen 23%
Hikaru Nakamura 16%
Fabiano Caruana 9%
Wesley So 9%
Magnus Carlsen
23%
Hikaru Nakamura
16%
Fabiano Caruana
9%
Wesley So
9%
Ding Liren
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Tuomas Turunen
9%
Javokhir Sindarov
9%
Levon Aronian
9%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
9%
Volen Dyulgerov
9%
Vincent Keymer
9%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
9%
Alireza Firouzja
5%
Dincer Tasdogen
5%
Faustino Oro
5%
Frederik Svane
5%
Arjun Erigaisi
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Alexander Grischuk
5%
Aleksandar Indjic
5%
Aleksandr Shimanov
5%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
5%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
5%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Wei Yi
5%
Vladimir Fedoseev
5%
Christopher Yoo
5%
Awonder Liang
5%
Andrew Tang
5%
Aravindh Chithambaram
5%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Benjamin Bok
5%
Andrey Esipenko
5%
Bardiya Daneshvar
5%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
5%
Dmitry Andreikin
5%
David Anton
5%
Dau Khuong Duy
5%
Hans Niemann
5%
Haowen Xue
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Jules Moussard
5%
Jeffery Xiong
5%
Le Tuan Minh
5%
Matthias Bluebaum
5%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
5%
Pranav Venkatesh
5%
Renato Terry Lujan
5%
Rudik Makarian
5%
Rasmus Svane
5%
Sam Sevian
5%
Sergey Sklokin
5%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
5%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Haik Martirosyan
5%
Nihal Sarin
5%
Nikolas Theodorou
5%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
5%
Parham Maghsoodloo
5%
Pranesh Munirethinam
5%
If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Magnus Carlsen holds the clearest edge in the Titled Tuesday field thanks to his recent August 4 victory and consistent elite results in online blitz, reflected in the market's 22.5% implied probability. Hikaru Nakamura sits second at 15.5% on the strength of his unmatched historical win total and sustained high-level participation. The remaining probabilities stay tightly clustered around 5% because the event draws dozens of 2600-plus grandmasters, producing high variance where form, pairing luck, and single-day performance can elevate any strong contender. Recent results show Carlsen, Nakamura, and players like Arjun Erigaisi frequently finishing near the top, yet the depth of the field prevents any single participant from commanding a dominant share of trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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