Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and Liechtenstein make up UEFA Nations League 2026-27 Group D2, a compact three-team round-robin where each side plays the others home and away starting 24 September. Lithuania enters as the clear form leader on recent Nations League and qualifying results, reflected in trader pricing near 47-50 percent for the group win. Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein sit lower in implied probability at roughly 25-27 percent and 24-25 percent respectively, yet the tight clustering stems from limited recent head-to-head data, similar squad depths, and the small sample of matches that will decide promotion to League C. No major injuries or roster changes have altered the outlook in the past month, leaving the race dependent on early matchday results and home advantage.