Pope Leo XIV’s 2026 general-audience series and catechesis cycle explicitly center on rereading and implementing Vatican II documents, reinforcing the prevailing view that the Church remains focused on completing that council’s agenda rather than launching a successor. No official Vatican announcement, preparatory commission, or consistory has signaled an ecumenical gathering in the remaining months of the year, and major councils historically require years of planning. Calls from external figures such as Armenian Patriarch Aram I remain informal and carry no institutional weight. Traders therefore assign overwhelming implied probability to “No,” viewing the absence of any credible campaign momentum as decisive. A late-year surprise announcement by the Pope could still shift the outcome, though such a move would contradict the current emphasis on consolidation over new conciliar structures.