Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$118,211 交易量
2026-04-30
唐纳德·特朗普
5%
J.D.万斯
76%
Marco Rubio
9%
贾里德·库什纳
80%
史蒂夫·威特科夫
82%
$118,211 交易量
唐纳德·特朗普
$98,345 交易量
5%
J.D.万斯
$7,880 交易量
76%
Marco Rubio
$5,450 交易量
9%
贾里德·库什纳
$2,507 交易量
80%
史蒂夫·威特科夫
$4,028 交易量
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$118,211结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$118,211结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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