Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$88,033 交易量
2026-04-30
Donald Trump
8%
J.D. Vance
72%
Marco Rubio
12%
Jared Kushner
71%
Steve Witkoff
80%
$88,033 交易量
Donald Trump
$77,264 交易量
8%
J.D. Vance
$3,397 交易量
72%
Marco Rubio
$3,592 交易量
12%
Jared Kushner
$815 交易量
71%
Steve Witkoff
$2,994 交易量
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$88,033结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$88,033结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the collapse of initial US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 10-12—where Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner engaged Iranian delegates led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf without reaching a deal—diplomats are arranging a second round amid a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration around April 21. President Trump signaled resumption within days on April 15, boosting trader consensus on Witkoff (78% implied probability) as the lead US negotiator, ahead of Vance (76%) and Kushner (65%), reflecting his central role in prior diplomacy and Pakistan's mediation efforts before the April 30 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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