Petr Yan’s return as bantamweight champion after defeating Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision at UFC 323 has locked in a trilogy bout as the clear next step, with traders pricing Merab Dvalishvili at 89% implied probability. Yan underwent minor back surgery in early 2026 and remains sidelined into summer, making an immediate defense against the former champion the most straightforward scheduling option once cleared. The pair’s 1-1 rivalry, combined with Dvalishvili’s status as the top contender and ongoing public calls for the rubber match, drives the overwhelming consensus reflected in the market. Sean O’Malley sits at 10% as the primary alternative should the trilogy slip, while all other names remain below 1%. A late injury, promotional pivot to a different contender, or extended recovery timeline represent the limited realistic paths that could shift the outcome away from Dvalishvili.