The KRG has prioritized institutional coordination with Iraq’s federal government through ongoing negotiations on the 2027 budget, customs revenue sharing, oil exports, and a proposed permanent high-level committee to manage disputes. Recent meetings in Baghdad and statements from KRG leaders emphasize constitutional rights, salary payments, and security cooperation rather than secession. Internal focus remains on forming the tenth regional cabinet amid partisan negotiations and addressing economic pressures, while regional diplomacy stresses stability and non-use of KRG territory against neighbors. Coalition military withdrawal by late September 2026 and external pressures have reinforced engagement within the federal framework over unilateral moves. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no declaration by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$272,861 交易量
$272,861 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$272,861 交易量
$272,861 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The KRG has prioritized institutional coordination with Iraq’s federal government through ongoing negotiations on the 2027 budget, customs revenue sharing, oil exports, and a proposed permanent high-level committee to manage disputes. Recent meetings in Baghdad and statements from KRG leaders emphasize constitutional rights, salary payments, and security cooperation rather than secession. Internal focus remains on forming the tenth regional cabinet amid partisan negotiations and addressing economic pressures, while regional diplomacy stresses stability and non-use of KRG territory against neighbors. Coalition military withdrawal by late September 2026 and external pressures have reinforced engagement within the federal framework over unilateral moves. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no declaration by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$272,861结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The KRG has prioritized institutional coordination with Iraq’s federal government through ongoing negotiations on the 2027 budget, customs revenue sharing, oil exports, and a proposed permanent high-level committee to manage disputes. Recent meetings in Baghdad and statements from KRG leaders emphasize constitutional rights, salary payments, and security cooperation rather than secession. Internal focus remains on forming the tenth regional cabinet amid partisan negotiations and addressing economic pressures, while regional diplomacy stresses stability and non-use of KRG territory against neighbors. Coalition military withdrawal by late September 2026 and external pressures have reinforced engagement within the federal framework over unilateral moves. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no declaration by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$272,861结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThe KRG has prioritized institutional coordination with Iraq’s federal government through ongoing negotiations on the 2027 budget, customs revenue sharing, oil exports, and a proposed permanent high-level committee to manage disputes. Recent meetings in Baghdad and statements from KRG leaders emphasize constitutional rights, salary payments, and security cooperation rather than secession. Internal focus remains on forming the tenth regional cabinet amid partisan negotiations and addressing economic pressures, while regional diplomacy stresses stability and non-use of KRG territory against neighbors. Coalition military withdrawal by late September 2026 and external pressures have reinforced engagement within the federal framework over unilateral moves. These developments align with trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% implied probability for no declaration by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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