The Kurdistan Regional Government’s leadership continues to prioritize negotiations with Baghdad over budget transfers, oil revenue sharing, and security coordination, with no official statements or actions signaling an intent to declare independence by year-end. Internal political deadlock among the KDP, PUK, and New Generation has stalled formation of the next KRG cabinet, while the region manages fallout from the 2026 Iran conflict and the scheduled U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September 30. Officials, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework through high-level meetings and institutional mechanisms. These dynamics, combined with the lasting effects of the 2017 referendum’s territorial and economic setbacks, sustain trader consensus that a formal secession declaration remains highly improbable before the December 31 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$272,861 交易量
$272,861 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$272,861 交易量
$272,861 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government’s leadership continues to prioritize negotiations with Baghdad over budget transfers, oil revenue sharing, and security coordination, with no official statements or actions signaling an intent to declare independence by year-end. Internal political deadlock among the KDP, PUK, and New Generation has stalled formation of the next KRG cabinet, while the region manages fallout from the 2026 Iran conflict and the scheduled U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September 30. Officials, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework through high-level meetings and institutional mechanisms. These dynamics, combined with the lasting effects of the 2017 referendum’s territorial and economic setbacks, sustain trader consensus that a formal secession declaration remains highly improbable before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$272,861结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government’s leadership continues to prioritize negotiations with Baghdad over budget transfers, oil revenue sharing, and security coordination, with no official statements or actions signaling an intent to declare independence by year-end. Internal political deadlock among the KDP, PUK, and New Generation has stalled formation of the next KRG cabinet, while the region manages fallout from the 2026 Iran conflict and the scheduled U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September 30. Officials, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework through high-level meetings and institutional mechanisms. These dynamics, combined with the lasting effects of the 2017 referendum’s territorial and economic setbacks, sustain trader consensus that a formal secession declaration remains highly improbable before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$272,861结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThe Kurdistan Regional Government’s leadership continues to prioritize negotiations with Baghdad over budget transfers, oil revenue sharing, and security coordination, with no official statements or actions signaling an intent to declare independence by year-end. Internal political deadlock among the KDP, PUK, and New Generation has stalled formation of the next KRG cabinet, while the region manages fallout from the 2026 Iran conflict and the scheduled U.S.-led coalition withdrawal by September 30. Officials, including Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and President Nechirvan Barzani, have reaffirmed commitment to Iraq’s federal framework through high-level meetings and institutional mechanisms. These dynamics, combined with the lasting effects of the 2017 referendum’s territorial and economic setbacks, sustain trader consensus that a formal secession declaration remains highly improbable before the December 31 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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