NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~20-meter bolide airburst. Recent safe close approaches by asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 in mid-March and house-sized 2026 GD underscore effective global monitoring covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most mid-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs). Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with historical infrequency—roughly one such event per decade, as in the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst—bolstered by ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. Realistic challengers include an undetected small meteoroid evading pre-discovery, though continuous fireball data and telescope networks minimize this uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~20-meter bolide airburst. Recent safe close approaches by asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 in mid-March and house-sized 2026 GD underscore effective global monitoring covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most mid-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs). Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with historical infrequency—roughly one such event per decade, as in the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst—bolstered by ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. Realistic challengers include an undetected small meteoroid evading pre-discovery, though continuous fireball data and telescope networks minimize this uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,136শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~20-meter bolide airburst. Recent safe close approaches by asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 in mid-March and house-sized 2026 GD underscore effective global monitoring covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most mid-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs). Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with historical infrequency—roughly one such event per decade, as in the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst—bolstered by ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. Realistic challengers include an undetected small meteoroid evading pre-discovery, though continuous fireball data and telescope networks minimize this uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$7,136শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog for collision risks, lists no potential Earth impacts in 2026 capable of releasing 100 kilotons of TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~20-meter bolide airburst. Recent safe close approaches by asteroids like bus-sized 2026 EG1 in mid-March and house-sized 2026 GD underscore effective global monitoring covering over 95% of kilometer-class threats and most mid-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs). Trader consensus at 93.5% for "No" aligns with historical infrequency—roughly one such event per decade, as in the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst—bolstered by ongoing surveys from Pan-STARRS and ATLAS. Realistic challengers include an undetected small meteoroid evading pre-discovery, though continuous fireball data and telescope networks minimize this uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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