Recent monitoring by NASA and CNEOS shows no confirmed ≥5 kt airbursts through August 2026, consistent with the roughly 4–10 year average interval for objects around 7 m diameter that produce such energy releases upon atmospheric entry. Multiple smaller fireballs, including 0.026 kt and 0.25 kt events over Texas and Ohio in March, have occurred without reaching the threshold. Ongoing NEO tracking, including safe June and May flybys of larger asteroids like 1997 NC1 and 2026 JH2, reinforces that no imminent impactors of sufficient size are currently identified. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus on the low-30% implied probability for a qualifying strike reflects both the stochastic nature of small NEO fluxes and the absence of new observational data pointing to an elevated risk.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% সম্ভাবনা
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
27% সম্ভাবনা
$311,616 Vol.
$311,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent monitoring by NASA and CNEOS shows no confirmed ≥5 kt airbursts through August 2026, consistent with the roughly 4–10 year average interval for objects around 7 m diameter that produce such energy releases upon atmospheric entry. Multiple smaller fireballs, including 0.026 kt and 0.25 kt events over Texas and Ohio in March, have occurred without reaching the threshold. Ongoing NEO tracking, including safe June and May flybys of larger asteroids like 1997 NC1 and 2026 JH2, reinforces that no imminent impactors of sufficient size are currently identified. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus on the low-30% implied probability for a qualifying strike reflects both the stochastic nature of small NEO fluxes and the absence of new observational data pointing to an elevated risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$311,616শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent monitoring by NASA and CNEOS shows no confirmed ≥5 kt airbursts through August 2026, consistent with the roughly 4–10 year average interval for objects around 7 m diameter that produce such energy releases upon atmospheric entry. Multiple smaller fireballs, including 0.026 kt and 0.25 kt events over Texas and Ohio in March, have occurred without reaching the threshold. Ongoing NEO tracking, including safe June and May flybys of larger asteroids like 1997 NC1 and 2026 JH2, reinforces that no imminent impactors of sufficient size are currently identified. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus on the low-30% implied probability for a qualifying strike reflects both the stochastic nature of small NEO fluxes and the absence of new observational data pointing to an elevated risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$311,616শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent monitoring by NASA and CNEOS shows no confirmed ≥5 kt airbursts through August 2026, consistent with the roughly 4–10 year average interval for objects around 7 m diameter that produce such energy releases upon atmospheric entry. Multiple smaller fireballs, including 0.026 kt and 0.25 kt events over Texas and Ohio in March, have occurred without reaching the threshold. Ongoing NEO tracking, including safe June and May flybys of larger asteroids like 1997 NC1 and 2026 JH2, reinforces that no imminent impactors of sufficient size are currently identified. With roughly four months remaining, trader consensus on the low-30% implied probability for a qualifying strike reflects both the stochastic nature of small NEO fluxes and the absence of new observational data pointing to an elevated risk.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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