No confirmed bolide with energy at or above 5 kilotons has been detected through September 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and JPL fireball monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of such an event this year near 25%. Historical records from sensor networks indicate these airbursts from meter-scale impactors occur roughly once every 1–4 years on average, producing a base-rate chance of 25–50% in any calendar year via Poisson modeling. No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk for the remainder of 2026, and recent fireballs have remained well below threshold. Ongoing global infrasound and optical surveillance through year-end will determine resolution, with any late detection capable of shifting odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
21% সম্ভাবনা
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
21% সম্ভাবনা
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed bolide with energy at or above 5 kilotons has been detected through September 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and JPL fireball monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of such an event this year near 25%. Historical records from sensor networks indicate these airbursts from meter-scale impactors occur roughly once every 1–4 years on average, producing a base-rate chance of 25–50% in any calendar year via Poisson modeling. No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk for the remainder of 2026, and recent fireballs have remained well below threshold. Ongoing global infrasound and optical surveillance through year-end will determine resolution, with any late detection capable of shifting odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$314,157শেষ তারিখ
Mar 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No confirmed bolide with energy at or above 5 kilotons has been detected through September 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and JPL fireball monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of such an event this year near 25%. Historical records from sensor networks indicate these airbursts from meter-scale impactors occur roughly once every 1–4 years on average, producing a base-rate chance of 25–50% in any calendar year via Poisson modeling. No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk for the remainder of 2026, and recent fireballs have remained well below threshold. Ongoing global infrasound and optical surveillance through year-end will determine resolution, with any late detection capable of shifting odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$314,157শেষ তারিখ
Mar 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...No confirmed bolide with energy at or above 5 kilotons has been detected through September 2026, according to NASA CNEOS and JPL fireball monitoring, keeping the market-implied probability of such an event this year near 25%. Historical records from sensor networks indicate these airbursts from meter-scale impactors occur roughly once every 1–4 years on average, producing a base-rate chance of 25–50% in any calendar year via Poisson modeling. No known near-Earth objects pose a collision risk for the remainder of 2026, and recent fireballs have remained well below threshold. Ongoing global infrasound and optical surveillance through year-end will determine resolution, with any late detection capable of shifting odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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