**With roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed ≥5 kt bolide airburst, market-implied odds have moved to 75% for “No.”** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound monitoring show events releasing 5 kt or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur on average once every 1–3 years globally, though detection completeness varies with location and sensor coverage. No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, and recent close approaches (all sub-50 m objects) have produced only sub-kiloton fireballs or none at all. Continuous surveillance by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office and updated orbital solutions have not altered this assessment. Resolution hinges on official confirmation of any qualifying atmospheric impact before December 31; absent new detections, the narrowing calendar window continues to favor “No.”
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
21% সম্ভাবনা
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
21% সম্ভাবনা
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**With roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed ≥5 kt bolide airburst, market-implied odds have moved to 75% for “No.”** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound monitoring show events releasing 5 kt or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur on average once every 1–3 years globally, though detection completeness varies with location and sensor coverage. No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, and recent close approaches (all sub-50 m objects) have produced only sub-kiloton fireballs or none at all. Continuous surveillance by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office and updated orbital solutions have not altered this assessment. Resolution hinges on official confirmation of any qualifying atmospheric impact before December 31; absent new detections, the narrowing calendar window continues to favor “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$314,157শেষ তারিখ
Mar 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**With roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed ≥5 kt bolide airburst, market-implied odds have moved to 75% for “No.”** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound monitoring show events releasing 5 kt or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur on average once every 1–3 years globally, though detection completeness varies with location and sensor coverage. No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, and recent close approaches (all sub-50 m objects) have produced only sub-kiloton fireballs or none at all. Continuous surveillance by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office and updated orbital solutions have not altered this assessment. Resolution hinges on official confirmation of any qualifying atmospheric impact before December 31; absent new detections, the narrowing calendar window continues to favor “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$314,157শেষ তারিখ
Mar 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**With roughly three-quarters of 2026 elapsed without a confirmed ≥5 kt bolide airburst, market-implied odds have moved to 75% for “No.”** Historical records from NASA’s CNEOS fireball database and CTBTO infrasound monitoring show events releasing 5 kt or more of TNT-equivalent energy occur on average once every 1–3 years globally, though detection completeness varies with location and sensor coverage. No known near-Earth objects large enough to deliver this energy are on collision trajectories for the remainder of the year, and recent close approaches (all sub-50 m objects) have produced only sub-kiloton fireballs or none at all. Continuous surveillance by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office and updated orbital solutions have not altered this assessment. Resolution hinges on official confirmation of any qualifying atmospheric impact before December 31; absent new detections, the narrowing calendar window continues to favor “No.”
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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