Canada's population trajectory in 2026 hinges on federal immigration adjustments under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually while sharply cutting temporary resident inflows, including a roughly 50 percent drop in new international students and reduced work permits. Parliamentary Budget Officer analysis projects flat overall growth this year—the second consecutive period of stagnation—driven by sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that have already produced the first recorded annual population decline in Q1 data. Natural increase remains modest amid low birth rates, leaving migration as the dominant variable. Trader consensus near even odds reflects uncertainty over the pace of outflows through year-end, potential data revisions from permit extensions, and whether permanent inflows fully offset temporary resident reductions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's population trajectory in 2026 hinges on federal immigration adjustments under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which caps permanent resident admissions near 380,000 annually while sharply cutting temporary resident inflows, including a roughly 50 percent drop in new international students and reduced work permits. Parliamentary Budget Officer analysis projects flat overall growth this year—the second consecutive period of stagnation—driven by sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that have already produced the first recorded annual population decline in Q1 data. Natural increase remains modest amid low birth rates, leaving migration as the dominant variable. Trader consensus near even odds reflects uncertainty over the pace of outflows through year-end, potential data revisions from permit extensions, and whether permanent inflows fully offset temporary resident reductions.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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