Runoff election set between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 89%8%

With no candidate securing over 50% in the first round, De la Espriella and Cepeda advanced to a runoff on June 21. This set the stage for a polarized contest between right-wing and left-wing visions, intensifying market focus on De la Espriella's growing lead.

Runoff election held between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda

Yes jumps to 100%12%

The runoff election took place with high tension and narrow margins. De la Espriella claimed victory with about 49.7% of the vote against Cepeda's 48.7%. Cepeda's campaign challenged the results citing irregularities, but no official recount overturned the outcome.

Abelardo de la Espriella Wins Colombia's Presidential Runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 99%11%

Preliminary results showed de la Espriella narrowly defeating Iván Cepeda in the runoff, securing the presidency and shifting the market to 99%.

Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly wins Colombian presidential runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 100%12%

In a razor-thin runoff election, Abelardo de la Espriella defeated Iván Cepeda by less than 1%, marking a return to right-wing leadership after four years of leftist governance. Despite Cepeda's challenge to the results alleging irregularities, official counts confirmed de la Espriella's victory, which was widely observed as transparent and orderly.

Claudia López endorses Iván Cepeda for runoff

Former presidential candidate and ex-mayor of Bogotá Claudia López announced she would vote for Iván Cepeda in the runoff, providing a boost to Cepeda's campaign shortly before the June 21 election.

Claudia López announces independent vote for Iván Cepeda

Former presidential candidate Claudia López announced she would vote for Iván Cepeda as an independent, signaling a significant political endorsement for Cepeda in the runoff against Abelardo de la Espriella.

Iván Cepeda gains momentum in polls ahead of runoff election

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 41%1%

Polls conducted in mid-June showed Iván Cepeda gaining support and leading in some runoff scenarios against de la Espriella. Cepeda's progressive platform and backing from outgoing President Gustavo Petro energized his base, tightening the race ahead of the June 21 runoff.

Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign surges ahead before runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 90%7%

In the days leading up to the June 21 runoff, Abelardo de la Espriella's market price surged to a high of 90%, reflecting increased confidence in his chances to win the presidency amid a polarized electorate.

Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella leading Iván Cepeda ahead of runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%12%

Recent polls by Guarumo, Ecoanalítica, and AtlasIntel indicated De la Espriella leading Cepeda by 7-8 points, reinforcing market confidence in De la Espriella's chances and driving his price upward.

Colombian Supreme Court suspends ban on Abelardo de la Espriella's use of national symbols in campaign

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 89%4%

The Supreme Court suspended a lower court's decision banning De la Espriella from using national symbols, including the football jersey, allowing him to continue his campaign imagery and possibly boosting his public appeal.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate

De la Espriella named respected economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appeal ahead of the runoff election.

Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against Abelardo de la Espriella for paramilitary links

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 55%6%

Cepeda filed a formal complaint with Colombia's Fiscalía and the International Criminal Court accusing De la Espriella of crimes linked to paramilitary groups, intensifying the election's polarization and legal battles.

Abelardo de la Espriella undergoes medical exam ahead of runoff

De la Espriella accepted a public challenge to demonstrate his health by undergoing medical tests, which confirmed he was in good condition. This helped reassure voters about his fitness for office ahead of the runoff.

Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella leading Iván Cepeda in runoff voting intention

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 85%4%

Recent surveys indicate De la Espriella holds a growing lead over Cepeda in the June 21 runoff, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics in the final stretch.

Iván Cepeda announces legal actions against Abelardo de la Espriella over Saludvida case

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 61%8%

Iván Cepeda announced he would file a criminal complaint against Abelardo de la Espriella related to alleged misappropriation of funds linked to the defunct EPS Saludvida. This escalated the political confrontation and negatively impacted De la Espriella's image temporarily.

Iván Cepeda alleges Abelardo de la Espriella plans a staged attack to influence runoff

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 12%4%

Cepeda publicly accused De la Espriella of planning a controlled self-attack to sway the June 21 runoff election, raising concerns about election integrity and increasing political tension. This likely contributed to Cepeda's market price decline.

Iván Cepeda warns of alleged planned self-attack by Abelardo de la Espriella campaign

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 75%6%

Cepeda publicly denounced a purported plot by De la Espriella's campaign to stage a controlled self-attack to influence the election outcome, raising tensions and security concerns ahead of the runoff.

Judicial order prohibits De la Espriella's campaign from using national symbols

A judicial ruling barred De la Espriella and his movement from using Colombian national symbols and military references in campaign events. De la Espriella defied the order, rallying supporters with patriotic displays, which energized his base but sparked controversy.

Iván Cepeda Denounces Alleged Auto-Attempt Plot by Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 1%11%

On June 8, Iván Cepeda publicly accused Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign of planning a controlled self-attack to influence the runoff election. Cepeda announced he would report this to the authorities, intensifying the election's contentious atmosphere.

Iván Cepeda accuses Abelardo de la Espriella of planning a false flag attack

Cepeda publicly alleged that De la Espriella's campaign was orchestrating a controlled self-attack to influence the runoff election, escalating tensions and political accusations between the candidates.

Iván Cepeda formally accepts first-round election results

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%

On June 8, 2026, Iván Cepeda publicly accepted the official results of the first round, ending initial disputes and signaling the start of the runoff campaign. This acceptance stabilized his market price, which had declined after the election.

Iván Cepeda acknowledges first-round election results, preparing for runoff

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 14%24%

After initial skepticism and claims of fraud, Cepeda accepted the official results of the May 31 first round, confirming the runoff against De la Espriella and stabilizing market expectations.

Iván Cepeda Belatedly Acknowledges First-Round Defeat

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 14%4%

Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda officially acknowledged his first-round defeat after the final vote count was completed, clearing the way for a televised debate and cementing de la Espriella's lead in the runoff.

Iván Cepeda accepts election results after initial delay

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%

After initial delays and allegations of fraud by supporters of Gustavo Petro, Iván Cepeda accepted the official results of the first round, confirming the runoff election against Abelardo de la Espriella.

Investigation reveals financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab

An investigative report exposed that Abelardo de la Espriella received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial businessman connected to corruption allegations, raising questions about De la Espriella's campaign financing.

Iván Cepeda formally accepts first-round election results

After initial skepticism, Iván Cepeda officially acknowledged his defeat in the first round and accepted the electoral authorities' results, paving the way for the runoff campaign. This acceptance reduced political uncertainty and stabilized market expectations for the runoff.

Cepeda acknowledges first‑round defeat, ending dispute

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%

Cepeda publicly accepted the first‑round results on 7 June, ending speculation about a contested outcome. The acknowledgment helped stabilize his price, which had fallen to a low of 12 % by 16 June after the runoff was confirmed.

Iván Cepeda publicly recognizes first round election results

Cepeda formally accepted the official results of the first round, demonstrating respect for democratic processes despite the close race. This acknowledgment was important for political stability but did not reverse his market decline.

Colombian authorities certify first-round election results amid peaceful voting day

Colombian authorities certified the May 31 first-round election results, confirming Abelardo de la Espriella's lead and Iván Cepeda's second place, with international observers deeming the process orderly and transparent despite prior violence concerns.

CNE certifies De la Espriella’s 43.7 % first‑round lead over Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 85%1%

Official certification by the CNE confirmed De la Espriella’s first‑round lead (43.7 %) and Cepeda’s 40.9 %. The certification solidified the market’s final values – De la Espriella at 85 % and Cepeda at 14 % – and explains the last small adjustments between 4 Jun and 10 Jun.

National Electoral Council certifies first-round election results

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 85%24%

The National Electoral Council officially certified the May 31 election results confirming Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda as the two candidates advancing to the runoff, solidifying market confidence in the runoff matchup.

National Electoral Council certifies first-round results and runoff candidates

Yes rises to 85%2%

The Colombian National Electoral Council officially certified the May 31 election results, confirming Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda as the candidates for the June 21 runoff. This formal certification solidified the market's resolution path.

Donald Trump publicly endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for Colombia presidency

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%12%

US President Donald Trump expressed full support for De la Espriella, boosting his campaign momentum ahead of the June 21 runoff and signaling strong US-Colombia ties under his potential presidency.

Donald Trump endorses Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 84%19%

Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, praising his leadership and policies. This endorsement boosted De la Espriella's campaign momentum and market confidence ahead of the June 21 runoff.

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa meets Abelardo de la Espriella pledging joint fight against narcoterrorism

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%15%

Noboa's meeting and commitment to eliminate a security tax was seen as international support for De la Espriella, boosting his campaign momentum and market confidence. The Colombian government criticized this as election interference, adding tension.

Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa Meets Abelardo de la Espriella, Promises to Eliminate Security Tax

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 83%17%

On June 2, Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa met with Abelardo de la Espriella and pledged joint efforts against narcoterrorism, including eliminating a security tax. The Colombian government condemned this as deliberate interference in the election, adding international tension.

Donald Trump endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for Colombian presidency runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 64%8%

US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella after the first round, praising his leadership and promising support for economic growth and law enforcement. This endorsement boosted de la Espriella's profile and solidified his position as the frontrunner for the runoff election.

Donald Trump publicly endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for second round

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 51%11%

US President Donald Trump expressed full support for Abelardo de la Espriella after his first-round victory, praising his leadership and promising US backing if elected. This endorsement boosted De la Espriella's standing and market price.

Polls confirm Iván Cepeda leads runoff scenarios against De la Espriella

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%

Polls and surveys conducted after the first round show Iván Cepeda leading in runoff matchups against Abelardo de la Espriella, with Cepeda generally favored to win by a margin of about 10 points. This reflects a consolidation of left-wing support and a divided right-wing electorate.

Iván Cepeda accepts first-round results after initial skepticism

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%

After initial doubts and claims of possible fraud by President Gustavo Petro and Iván Cepeda, Cepeda accepted the official results on June 7, confirming the runoff against De la Espriella. This acceptance helped stabilize the electoral process ahead of the runoff.

Colombia’s first‑round presidential results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 87%5%

Official preliminary results released by the Registraduría confirmed de la Espriella in first place and Cepeda in second. The market reacted instantly: de la Espriella’s price jumped to 87 % while Cepeda’s fell to 14 %, reflecting the new reality of a runoff between the two.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads first round with 43.7%

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%31%

Official results certified that Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right political outsider, exceeded expectations by securing 43.7% of the vote in the first round, positioning him as the frontrunner ahead of the runoff against Iván Cepeda.

Donald Trump endorses Abelardo de la Espriella after first-round victory

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 84%4%

On June 3, 2026, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, praising his leadership and policies. This endorsement bolstered De la Espriella's campaign momentum ahead of the runoff election.

Pre‑conteo confirms runoff between Espriella and Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 12%5%

Pre‑conteo data released on 1 June confirmed the narrow margin and the need for a runoff, prompting a final swing of Cepeda’s price down to 12 % and Espriella’s up to 89 % by 16 June as the race solidified.

Claudia López finishes fifth in first round, marking decline of centrist influence

Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%

Former Bogotá Mayor Claudia López finished fifth with less than 1% of the vote, reflecting the collapse of centrist candidates and impacting her market price to near zero.

Donald Trump publicly endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 88%44%

Former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed full support for De la Espriella's candidacy, praising his leadership and promising strong bilateral cooperation if elected. This endorsement boosted De la Espriella's profile internationally and among conservative voters.

Paloma Valencia endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for runoff

After finishing third in the first round with about 7% of the vote, Paloma Valencia, a prominent right-wing candidate, publicly announced her support for De la Espriella in the runoff, consolidating conservative backing behind him.

Cepeda files tutela to compel attendance at presidential debates

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%27%

Cepeda’s social‑media post demanding a legal action to force his participation in two televised debates was covered by Pulzo. The controversy over his refusal to debate drew criticism from right‑wing supporters and coincided with a market drop from 45 % (5 May) to 18 % on 4 June.

Claims of electoral irregularities emerge from Iván Cepeda's campaign

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%

Following the first round, Iván Cepeda's campaign alleged atypical voting patterns and possible irregularities at some polling stations, calling for verification and official scrutiny of the results. These claims added tension to the electoral process ahead of the runoff.

Iván Cepeda questions preliminary election results citing irregularities

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%22%

Following the first round, Iván Cepeda publicly questioned the preliminary results, alleging atypical voting patterns at some polling stations. This raised tensions and uncertainty ahead of the runoff election.

Legal challenge filed to compel Iván Cepeda to attend presidential debates

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%23%

A tutela action was filed seeking to obligate Iván Cepeda to participate in at least two presidential debates before the first round, arguing that his absence creates an information asymmetry affecting voters' right to informed decisions. This reflects ongoing debate about debate participation in Colombia.

Paloma Valencia Endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for Runoff

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%

Following her third-place finish, conservative candidate Paloma Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, consolidating the right-wing vote and boosting his market odds.

First round election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second, runoff set

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 85%24%

In the May 31 first round, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither secured a majority, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This official result confirmed the market's expectations and set the stage for the final contest.

First‑round results put Espriella ahead of Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 65%9%

Official first‑round results announced on 31 May confirmed Espriella as the front‑runner (43.7 %) and Cepeda in second place (40.9 %). The market surged Espriella’s price to 65 % and pushed Cepeda’s down to 38 % the next day.

Iván Cepeda challenges preliminary results citing irregularities

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 22%18%

Following the first round, Iván Cepeda expressed concerns about atypical voting patterns at some polling stations and indicated his campaign would verify the integrity of the vote count, reflecting tensions in the electoral process.

First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Iván Cepeda second

In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither candidate secured over 50%, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026.

First‑round results send Espriella to runoff, Cepeda falls short of 50 % threshold

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 13%22%

The first‑round official count showed Espriella ahead with 43.7 % and Cepeda second with 40.9 %. The unexpected loss of an outright majority caused Cepeda’s market price to plunge from 35 % on 31 May to 13 % on 12 Jun.

First round of Colombian presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda

Yes jumps to 44%6%

In the first round, Abelardo de la Espriella led with approximately 43.7% of the vote, followed by Iván Cepeda with about 41%. Neither candidate secured the required majority, leading to a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026. This result surprised many as polls had favored Cepeda.

Paloma Valencia endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for runoff

After finishing third in the first round, Paloma Valencia endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella to consolidate the right-wing vote against Iván Cepeda in the runoff election.

First round of Colombian presidential election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 65%2%

In the first round of voting, right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, leading to a runoff election scheduled for June 21.

First round election results: Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Cepeda second

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 66%26%

De la Espriella won the first round with 43.7% of votes, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda's 40.9%, forcing a runoff. This result caused a significant market shift favoring De la Espriella as the frontrunner for the presidency.

First round of Colombia's presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda

The May 31, 2026, presidential election first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing Iván Cepeda at 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This outcome confirmed market expectations and caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.

Colombia presidential election first round results: De la Espriella and Cepeda advance to runoff

Yes surges to 62%34%

The first round of the presidential election resulted in Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda advancing to the second round, reflecting the market's final price movements and confirming the two main contenders.

Colombians vote in first round of presidential election amid security concerns

The first round of voting took place peacefully despite security risks, with high military deployment and election monitors reporting an orderly process, setting the stage for the runoff between de la Espriella and Cepeda.

First round of presidential election results in runoff between De la Espriella and Cepeda

Yes surges to 63%35%

The May 31, 2026, election first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing Iván Cepeda at 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This confirmed the two main contenders and caused market prices to shift accordingly.

First round election results: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second, runoff set

Yes surges to 89%22%

The May 31 first round concluded with far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leading with 43.7% and left-wing Iván Cepeda second with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This outcome confirmed market expectations and solidified the two-candidate runoff scenario.

Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda advance to presidential runoff in Colombia

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%17%

In the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by leftist Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. No candidate secured over 50%, necessitating a runoff on June 21. This result surprised many polls and set the stage for a highly polarized second round.

Abelardo de la Espriella gana la primera vuelta presidencial y pasa a segunda vuelta con Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 83%21%

Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella secured first place in the first round of the presidential election with 43.74% of the vote, leading Iván Cepeda to a June 21 runoff.

Iván Cepeda Finishes Second in First Round and Questions Preliminary Results

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%19%

Leftist candidate Iván Cepeda secured 40.90% of the vote, advancing to the runoff but trailing De la Espriella. Cepeda and President Petro sowed doubt by alleging atypical voting patterns, causing Cepeda's market odds to drop sharply.

Colombian presidential election first round held amid security concerns

The first round of Colombia's 2026 presidential election took place on May 31 amid heightened security measures due to ongoing violence and political tensions. Despite concerns, the election proceeded with significant voter turnout, resulting in a runoff between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda.

Public rebuke of Iván Cepeda by victims of FARC and Vicky Dávila's criticism

A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Iván Cepeda for the number of child victims attributed to the guerrilla group. Journalist Vicky Dávila amplified the criticism on social media, impacting Cepeda's public image.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads first round of Colombian presidential election

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 44%4%

In the first round of voting, Abelardo de la Espriella received 43.7% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff. This result surprised many polls and set the stage for a polarized runoff election.

Abelardo de la Espriella Scores Surprise First-Round Victory

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 82%16%

In a major upset, right-wing populist Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round with 43.7% of the vote, forcing a runoff against Iván Cepeda.

First round of presidential election: De la Espriella leads, Cepeda second, runoff set

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 66%38%

On May 31, 2026, Colombia held the first round of its presidential election. Abelardo de la Espriella surprised many by leading with approximately 43.7% of the vote, while Iván Cepeda followed closely with about 40.9%. Neither candidate secured a majority, triggering a runoff scheduled for June 21, 2026. This result caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.

Colombian presidential election first round held; Abelardo de la Espriella leads, Iván Cepeda second

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 80%24%

On May 31, 2026, Colombia held its presidential election first round. Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%. Neither secured a majority, triggering a runoff scheduled for June 21. This result caused a sharp rise in De la Espriella's market price and a decline for Cepeda.

Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda advance to runoff

In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed closely by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff election on June 21, 2026.

Abelardo de la Espriella votes in Barranquilla, calls election 'most important in history'

De la Espriella voted early in Barranquilla and urged Colombians to participate in the election, framing it as a critical moment for the country's future. His presence and messaging energized his supporters on election day.

Abelardo de la Espriella wins first round, setting runoff with Iván Cepeda

In the first round of the presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella led with 43.7% of the vote, followed by Iván Cepeda with 40.9%, necessitating a runoff election on June 21, 2026.

Abelardo de la Espriella wins surprise first round in Colombia presidential election

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%16%

De la Espriella secured a decisive first-round victory with over 43% of the vote, surpassing polls that had favored Iván Cepeda. This unexpected result shifted market expectations dramatically in favor of De la Espriella, reflecting broad voter support for his tough-on-crime and anti-establishment message.

President Gustavo Petro questions preliminary election results

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 39%3%

President Petro expressed doubts about the preliminary vote count and the software used, echoing concerns raised by Iván Cepeda's camp about irregularities. This introduced political tension but did not prevent De la Espriella's market rise as official results confirmed his lead.

AtlasIntel poll puts De la Espriella ahead of Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 84%22%

An AtlasIntel poll for Semana released on 30 May showed De la Espriella leading Cepeda by 2 percentage points (29.4 % vs 27.8 %). The poll gave momentum to his campaign and matches the market jump from 62 % (30 May) to 84 % (4 Jun).

Ecuador’s president meets De la Espriella, promises joint fight against narcoterrorism

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 84%6%

Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa met with De la Espriella and pledged joint action against narcoterrorism, promising to drop a security tax. The meeting was framed as foreign interference and drew intense media attention, coinciding with the market’s biggest surge (+6 pts on 26 May) that lifted his price to 84 % by 4 Jun.

Ecuadorean president meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint fight against narcoterrorism

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 63%13%

Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa met with De la Espriella and committed to joint efforts against narcoterrorism, promising to eliminate a security tax. The Colombian government condemned this as interference, adding international tension to the election period.

Abelardo de la Espriella Wins First Round of Colombian Presidential Election

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 66%36%

On May 29, preliminary results showed Abelardo de la Espriella winning the first round with 43.7% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda's 40.9%. This unexpected lead set the stage for a highly competitive runoff election.

Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint fight on narcoterrorism

Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa met with Abelardo de la Espriella and committed to collaborate on combating narcoterrorism, including eliminating a security tax. The Colombian government criticized this as deliberate interference in the election.

Ex‑Bucaramanga mayor joins Espriella’s campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 43%8%

Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán announced he would join Espriella’s campaign as regional manager. The endorsement contributed to a price jump for Espriella from 35 % on 23 May to 43 % on 29 May.

Final campaign surge boosts Abelardo de la Espriella's chances ahead of election

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%

In the final days before the May 31 election, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gained momentum, with polls and market prices showing a significant rise, overtaking Paloma Valencia and positioning him as the main right-wing contender against Iván Cepeda.

Iván Cepeda faces complaints for violating electoral silence with campaign events

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%7%

Iván Cepeda was formally denounced for holding mass campaign events during the legally mandated electoral silence period, raising legal and reputational challenges that likely contributed to a decline in his market price.

Álvaro Uribe accuses Iván Cepeda of paramilitary ties and undermining peace

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%11%

Former president Álvaro Uribe publicly accused Iván Cepeda of offering benefits to paramilitaries and having links with FARC dissidents, intensifying political polarization and impacting Cepeda's campaign and market support.

Daniel Coronell Reveals Alleged Alex Saab Payments to Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%20%

An investigative report revealed that companies linked to Alex Saab transferred over $370,000 to accounts associated with candidate Abelardo de la Espriella.

Report alleges Abelardo de la Espriella received $370 k from Alex Saab‑linked firms

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 84%3%

A column by Daniel Coronell exposed alleged transfers of more than $370 k from Alex Saab‑related companies to de la Espriella, reviving controversy but having limited impact; the market price continued its upward trend, indicating the scandal was outweighed by the consolidation of right‑wing support.

Investigation alleges de la Espriella received hundreds of thousands from Alex Saab‑linked firms

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 84%2%

A column by Daniel Coronell alleged that de la Espriella had received more than US$370 000 from companies linked to Alex Saab. The story triggered a brief dip in his price (from 86 % back to 84 % on 6 June) as traders reassessed potential legal risk, but the overall upward trend continued.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads first round of presidential election

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 62%34%

In the May 31 first round, Abelardo de la Espriella surprised by leading with 43.7% of the vote, ahead of Iván Cepeda's 40.9%, setting the stage for a runoff and boosting his market price significantly.

Ecuadorean president Daniel Noboa meets Abelardo de la Espriella, pledges joint narcoterrorism fight

The meeting between Noboa and de la Espriella, with a pledge to eliminate a security tax, was seen as international support for de la Espriella's campaign, positively influencing his market position.

Investigation reveals Abelardo de la Espriella received $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 62%7%

A journalistic investigation exposed financial transfers from companies associated with Alex Saab to Abelardo de la Espriella, raising questions about campaign financing and impacting his campaign's public perception.

Abelardo de la Espriella linked to $370 k transfers from Alex Saab companies

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 72%8%

A column by Daniel Coronell revealed alleged $370 k transfers from Alex Saab‑linked companies to de la Espriella. Media coverage amplified doubts about the candidate’s financing, briefly pulling his price back (+8 pts) before the final vote.

Reports reveal financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 32%4%

Investigations disclosed that Abelardo de la Espriella received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial businessman connected to corruption allegations. This revelation cast a shadow over de la Espriella's campaign and influenced public perception.

Investigation reveals financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 22%4%

An investigative report exposed that Abelardo de la Espriella allegedly received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial businessman. This raised questions about his campaign financing and integrity.

Revelation of financial ties between Abelardo de la Espriella and Alex Saab's companies

Investigative reports revealed that Abelardo de la Espriella received over $370,000 from companies linked to Alex Saab, a controversial figure accused of corruption. This raised questions about De la Espriella's political neutrality and may have influenced market perceptions and candidate support.

Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Growing in Strength for Runoff Scenarios

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%16%

A late-May poll showed de la Espriella gaining significant momentum, indicating he would defeat Cepeda in a hypothetical second-round runoff.

CNC poll gives Cepeda a comfortable lead over Espriella

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 35%3%

A CNC poll released on 24 May showed Cepeda at 33 % versus Espriella at 30.9 %, confirming Cepeda’s lead. The market responded with a sharp decline in Cepeda’s price (from 38 % on 22 May to 35 % on 28 May).

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support Iván Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 0%50%

Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his candidacy and joined Iván Cepeda's campaign, aiming to strengthen the coalition and broaden support ahead of the election.

Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise including $20 million watch

De la Espriella gained media attention for launching exclusive and expensive campaign merchandise, including a limited edition watch priced at 20 million pesos. This move sparked mixed reactions and highlighted his affluent campaign style.

Investigative column ties de la Espriella to Alex Saab money transfers

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%12%

A column by Daniel Coronell revealed alleged $370 k transfers from Alex Saab‑linked companies to de la Espriella. The story generated a surge of criticism and a short‑term dip in his price (from 56 % on 22 May to 44 % on 23 May).

Report links Espriella to $370k transfers from Alex Saab‑related firms

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 45%22%

Investigative reporting alleged that Espriella received more than $370 000 from companies linked to Alex Saab. The story caused a brief dip in his price (from 67 % on May 26 to 45 % on May 20), but the market recovered quickly as the scandal was mitigated by his supporters.

Iván Cepeda closes campaign with rally in Bogotá’s Plaza de Bolívar

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 20%12%

Cepeda held a large rally in Bogotá to close his campaign. While attendance was strong, media coverage emphasized his declining poll numbers, coinciding with a market dip from 32 % to 20 % on June 1.

Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 38%10%

Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá with strong supporter turnout, signaling campaign strength ahead of the first round and positively impacting his market price.

Iván Cepeda closes campaign with large rally in Bogotá

Cepeda held a major campaign closing event in Bogotá's Plaza de Bolívar, demonstrating strong grassroots support and boosting his final market price before the election.

Abelardo de la Espriella Draws Massive Crowd at Barranquilla Campaign Closure

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 69%14%

Abelardo de la Espriella held a massive final campaign rally in Barranquilla, drawing tens of thousands of supporters and solidifying his position as the primary challenger to Cepeda.

De la Espriella draws over 50 000 supporters at Barranquilla’s Gran Malecón

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 81%25%

De la Espriella’s massive rally on the Gran Malecón in Barranquilla attracted tens of thousands, reinforcing his momentum in the final week and pushing his market price from 56 % (May 21) to 66 % (May 28), then to 81 % on June 2.

Iván Cepeda closes presidential campaign with large rally in Bogotá

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 72%16%

Iván Cepeda held a major campaign closing event at Plaza de Bolívar in Bogotá with strong support from Pacto Histórico followers, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate ahead of the May 31 election and stabilizing his market standing.

Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum, nearly ties with Iván Cepeda in polls

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%6%

In the final week before the first round, Abelardo de la Espriella surged in voter support, nearly tying with Iván Cepeda in polls, signaling a tightening race and boosting his market price.

Iván Cepeda cierra su campaña presidencial en la Plaza de Bolívar de Bogotá

Iván Cepeda closed his first-round presidential campaign with a massive rally in Bogotá, demonstrating strong mobilization of the Pacto Histórico coalition.

Abelardo de la Espriella holds massive closing rally in Barranquilla

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 86%21%

De la Espriella closed his campaign in Barranquilla with a massive rally that reportedly attracted over 35 000 attendees. The high‑visibility event reinforced his momentum and pushed his market price to a new high of 86 % on 31 May, shortly before the election.

Polls show Abelardo de la Espriella surging ahead of Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%

Recent polls and campaign developments showed De la Espriella gaining significant ground over Cepeda, pushing his market price sharply upward as he became the clear frontrunner ahead of the May 31 election.

Campaign headquarters of Paloma Valencia vandalized amid protests in Bogotá

Paloma Valencia drops to 2%12%

Paloma Valencia's campaign office in Bogotá was attacked by masked protesters, causing damage and raising concerns about political violence and opposition safety, which contributed to her declining support and market price drop.

FARC Dissidents and ELN Rebels Announce Ceasefires Ahead of Election

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%11%

Colombia's major illegal armed groups announced separate ceasefires to respect the voting process, temporarily easing security concerns but highlighting the central role of security in the campaign.

Abelardo de la Espriella holds high-energy campaign closing rally in Bogotá

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 62%20%

De la Espriella's large, theatrical campaign rally in Bogotá emphasized his tough-on-crime and nationalist messaging, energizing his base and contributing to a surge in his market price ahead of the first round.

Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager

Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's presidential campaign, enhancing the candidate's regional presence and campaign infrastructure.

ELN and FARC dissidents declare ceasefires ahead of the 2026 election

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 37%5%

Armed groups announced ceasefires for the election weekend. The news reduced the perceived security advantage of the hard‑line right, causing Cepeda’s market price to tumble from 42 % to 37 % over the next few days.

Colombia’s ELN rebels and FARC dissidents announce ceasefire for presidential election

The ELN and FARC dissident groups announced ceasefires around the May 31 election date, reducing violence and potentially impacting voter turnout and election dynamics. This development affected all candidates but was significant for the overall election environment.

Colombian National Electoral Council suspends AtlasIntel poll over methodological irregularities

The CNE suspended AtlasIntel's election polls due to concerns about biased methodologies and digital exclusion, affecting public perception and polling data reliability ahead of the election.

Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela and regional influence

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 45%12%

President Petro's public confrontation with Donald Trump regarding Venezuela and regional security influenced the political climate and market sentiment for the presidential election.

CNE Suspends AtlasIntel Polls Over Methodological Concerns

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%

The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended the publication of AtlasIntel polls, which had previously shown De la Espriella leading, due to concerns over biased methodologies.

Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum with new regional ally Jaime Andrés Beltrán

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%

The addition of Jaime Andrés Beltrán, former mayor of Bucaramanga, as regional campaign manager strengthened De la Espriella's territorial reach and boosted market confidence, reflected in a sharp price increase.

CNE Suspends AtlasIntel Polls Over Methodology Concerns

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 43%3%

The National Electoral Council suspended AtlasIntel's polling partnership with Semana, disrupting the flow of public polling data in the final stretch.

CNE suspends AtlasIntel polls over methodological concerns

The National Electoral Council (CNE) suspended AtlasIntel's polls due to concerns about biased methodologies, including digital exclusion and inconsistent data. The ban was lifted shortly after for procedural reasons, but the investigation into polling practices continued, affecting public perception of polling reliability.

Paloma Valencia endorses Abelardo de la Espriella after poor showing

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%22%

After finishing third with a low vote share, conservative candidate Paloma Valencia endorsed De la Espriella, consolidating right-wing support behind him and strengthening his position ahead of the runoff, reflected in a market price increase.

Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro lead final polls before election

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%

By mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro were the top contenders with market prices at 44% and 42% respectively, reflecting a tight race heading into the election.

Final polls show close race between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro

As the election nears, polls indicate a tight contest between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro, with market prices reflecting this competitive dynamic.

Army Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Was Declared Unfit for Military Service

A public controversy erupted after a journalist shared official documents showing De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, challenging his patriotic campaign narrative.

Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status revealed

The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, a fact that sparked public debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security.

Revelan que Abelardo de la Espriella no prestó servicio militar por no ser apto

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%1%

A column by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed official Army documents showing De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from opponents like Claudia López.

Abelardo de la Espriella launches luxury campaign merchandise

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%6%

Abelardo de la Espriella launched a luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos as part of his campaign merchandise, attracting media attention and reflecting his campaign's blend of political and entrepreneurial strategies.

Army confirms Abelardo de la Espriella was exempted from military service

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 33%5%

The Colombian Army officially stated that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, leading to public debate due to his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy caused significant market volatility for De la Espriella, reflecting doubts about his image.

Controversy over Iván Cepeda's refusal to attend debates

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%18%

Iván Cepeda faced criticism for declining to participate in several presidential debates, a stance that sparked legal actions seeking to compel his attendance. This controversy highlighted tensions around campaign transparency and voter information ahead of the election.

Army confirms De la Espriella never served; labeled ‘non‑apt’ in 1994

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%10%

A media report highlighted that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service in 1994, undermining his “patriotism” brand. The story prompted a surge of criticism from opponents, contributing to a price dip from 55 % on 14 May to 45 % on 30 May, while Cepeda’s price continued its decline.

Controversy over Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status sparks debate

A journalist published official military records showing Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking public debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy likely caused temporary market volatility and scrutiny of his candidacy.

Revelation of Abelardo de la Espriella's military service status sparks controversy

The Colombian Army confirmed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and was exempted, which sparked debate given his patriotic campaign rhetoric. This controversy was amplified by political opponents and media, affecting public perception.

Journalist Ana Bejarano Reveals Abelardo de la Espriella Did Not Serve in Military

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%

A column and official document shared by journalist Ana Bejarano revealed that De la Espriella was declared unfit for military service, sparking criticism from rival Claudia López.

Revelation that Abelardo de la Espriella did not complete military service sparks controversy

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%4%

The Colombian Army confirmed that Abelardo de la Espriella was declared unfit for military service and thus exempted, which sparked debate given his campaign's emphasis on patriotism and security. This controversy affected public perception and market prices.

Two campaign workers for Abelardo de la Espriella killed ahead of the presidential vote

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 64%19%

Two campaign workers for de la Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta. The violent incident generated a surge of sympathy for the right‑wing candidate and a sharp rise in his market price (+15 pts on 31 May) while Cepeda’s price fell sharply.

Abelardo de la Espriella holds large campaign closing event in Bucaramanga

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 45%2%

De la Espriella's campaign rally in Bucaramanga attracted thousands, signaling strong grassroots support and momentum in the final weeks before the election, which was reflected in rising market prices.

Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign coordinator in Meta

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 58%6%

Rogers Mauricio Devia, a key regional coordinator for De la Espriella's campaign, was killed in an armed attack, raising security concerns and political tension just weeks before the election. This tragic event highlighted the risks faced by political campaigns and affected De la Espriella's campaign dynamics.

Assassination of two campaign members shocks Abelardo de la Espriella's team

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 63%19%

The killing of two members of Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign in Meta raised concerns about political violence and intimidation, eliciting international condolences and highlighting security challenges affecting the election environment and possibly rallying support for De la Espriella.

Two presidential campaign staffers killed in Colombia amid election violence

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%4%

Two campaign staffers for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella were killed in the department of Meta, raising concerns about election violence and its impact on political participation and campaign dynamics.

Two campaign workers for Abelardo De La Espriella killed in attack

Two campaign workers for right-wing candidate Abelardo De La Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta province, raising concerns about election-related violence and security ahead of the presidential vote. De La Espriella condemned the attack and blamed dissident FARC factions, though authorities had not confirmed the perpetrators. This incident highlighted the tense and violent environment surrounding the 2026 elections.

Two campaign workers for de la Espriella murdered in Meta province

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 88%4%

Two campaign workers for de la Espriella were ambushed and killed in Meta province. The incident intensified security concerns, temporarily boosting Espriella’s hard‑line image and pushing his price higher, while also contributing to a sharp decline in Cepeda’s price as voters worried about violence.

Two members of De la Espriella’s campaign killed in Meta

Two members of De la Espriella’s campaign were assassinated in the Meta department two weeks before the election, raising security concerns. The incident momentarily slowed his price rise (from 66 % on May 28 to 66 % on Jun 2) but did not reverse the overall upward trend.

Ex‑Bucaramanga mayor joins Espriella’s campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 67%22%

Espriella announced that former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán would join his campaign as regional manager. The endorsement was covered widely and coincided with a jump in Espriella’s market price from 45 % (May 20) to 67 % (May 26).

Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%

Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.

Abelardo de la Espriella surpasses Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll, nears Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%7%

In a key poll by AtlasIntel, De la Espriella gained 32.9% support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7% and closing the gap with Iván Cepeda, signaling a surge in his campaign momentum and market price.

Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella widening lead over Paloma Valencia

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 41%16%

In mid-May 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's support surged to 32.9%, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia at 16.7%, consolidating his frontrunner status ahead of the election.

AtlasIntel poll puts Espriella ahead of Paloma Valencia

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 67%22%

An AtlasIntel poll released on 15 May showed Espriella at 31.5 % and Cepeda still ahead, confirming his rise and giving the market a boost that raised his price from 45 % (May 20) to 67 % (May 26).

AtlasIntel poll puts Abelardo de la Espriella within striking distance of Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%20%

AtlasIntel released a poll on 15 May showing de la Espriella at 32.9 % and Cepeda at 37.6 %. The narrowing gap sparked a surge in Espriella’s price, which jumped from 45 % to 65 % over the next ten days, while Cepeda’s price fell from 44 % to 36 %.

Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in latest AtlasIntel poll

Paloma Valencia drops to 9%7%

Latest AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella consolidating his lead over Paloma Valencia, who continues to lose support, confirming the market's decline in her price.

Abelardo de la Espriella distances himself from Paloma Valencia in AtlasIntel poll

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 33%5%

An AtlasIntel poll released mid-May showed Abelardo de la Espriella gaining significant voter intention support, distancing himself from Paloma Valencia and closing in on Iván Cepeda. This poll reflected growing momentum for De la Espriella and contributed to his rising market price.

Abelardo de la Espriella gains ground in polls, distancing from Paloma Valencia

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%

Polls showed Abelardo de la Espriella gaining support and distancing himself from Paloma Valencia, establishing him as a leading right-wing candidate and increasing his market price.

Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls, closing gap with Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 50%6%

Recent polls showed De la Espriella gaining significant voter support, narrowing the gap with Iván Cepeda and surpassing Paloma Valencia, reflecting his campaign momentum and contributing to his market price increase.

AtlasIntel poll puts Espriella within striking distance of Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%

An AtlasIntel poll published on 15 May showed de la Espriella at 32.9 % and Iván Cepeda at 37.6 %, but highlighted that the former had closed the gap with the incumbent left‑wing candidate. The market reacted with a modest rise in Espriella’s price (from 35 % on 5 May to 44 % on 11 May).

De la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private AtlasIntel polling

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%7%

De la Espriella's campaign invested heavily in private polling services from AtlasIntel to track electoral performance daily, enhancing campaign strategy and contributing to a price increase from 39% to 46%.

Abelardo de la Espriella denounces political slavery during campaign tour in Valle del Cauca

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%

During a campaign tour, Abelardo de la Espriella criticized corrupt political practices and pledged to fight against political exploitation, energizing his base and increasing his market support.

Abelardo de la Espriella campaigns in Valle del Cauca denouncing political exploitation

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%10%

Abelardo de la Espriella toured Valle del Cauca, criticizing traditional political practices and promising to fight political exploitation, energizing his base and contributing to his rising market support ahead of the election.

Iván Cepeda denounces armed groups' coercion in electoral process, demands sanctions

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%

Cepeda publicly condemned the influence of armed groups pressuring voters in various regions, calling for investigations and sanctions to ensure free and fair elections, reinforcing his campaign's commitment to democracy and impacting market perceptions.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%

De la Espriella's announcement of respected economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate enhanced his campaign's credibility and appeal, contributing to a significant price increase in the market.

Atlas Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Leading in Runoff Scenarios

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%11%

A new Atlas poll showed Iván Cepeda leading the first round, but Abelardo de la Espriella leading in a head-to-head runoff scenario with 44% of the vote.

De la Espriella rallies in Valle del Cauca, denounces ‘political slavery’

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 81%10%

De la Espriella’s tour of Valle del Cauca emphasised anti‑establishment rhetoric and attracted large crowds, reinforcing his momentum ahead of the May 31 vote and contributing to the final surge from 81 % (6 Jun) to 88 % (13 Jun).

FARC dissident audio backs Cepeda; Uribe accuses candidate of voter coercion

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 19%21%

A viral audio allegedly featuring a FARC dissident praising Cepeda, together with accusations from former President Uribe of “criminal coercion” of voters for Cepeda, sparked a media storm. The controversy eroded voter confidence, driving Cepeda’s price sharply down from 40 % (May 11) to 19 % (June 2).

Iván Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims controversy

Iván Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, an incident that sparked political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting Cepeda's public image.

Abelardo de la Espriella surges in polls with tough stance on crime

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%

Abelardo de la Espriella's poll numbers surged as he emphasized a hardline approach against criminal groups, appealing to voters concerned about security. This caused a significant market price increase for his candidacy.

Controversy over Colombian ambassador Vilma Velásquez's political involvement

Ambassador Vilma Velásquez was accused of using her diplomatic position to promote political candidacies, violating Colombian jurisprudence, which put her under investigation and affected Iván Cepeda's campaign due to her association.

Iván Cepeda requests investigation into ambassador Vilma Velásquez

Iván Cepeda called for an investigation into Colombian ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote his campaign, which is prohibited for public officials. This raised concerns about misuse of public office during the election period.

Iván Cepeda asks for probe into Haitian ambassador’s alleged campaign activity

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 32%9%

Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, sparking controversy and a further decline of his market price from 41 % to 32 % as voters questioned his focus on legal battles.

Iván Cepeda calls for investigation into ambassador's political involvement

Iván Cepeda publicly requested an investigation into Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position for political campaigning, highlighting concerns about misuse of public office during the election period.

Iván Cepeda publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking criticism from Vicky Dávila

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%

Cepeda faced public criticism over the issue of child victims of FARC, with journalist Vicky Dávila sharing the confrontation and criticizing Cepeda's response, which affected his public image and campaign narrative during a sensitive period.

Colombian ambassador in Haiti publicly supports Iván Cepeda, prompting investigation request

The Colombian ambassador in Haiti expressed support for Iván Cepeda's campaign, leading Cepeda to request an investigation to avoid misuse of public office in political campaigning, impacting public perception.

Diplomat Vilma Velásquez investigated for political campaigning in Haiti

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 35%2%

Iván Cepeda called for an investigation into Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for allegedly using her diplomatic position to promote political candidates, which is prohibited. This controversy affected Cepeda's campaign image.

Iván Cepeda asks probe of Haiti ambassador Vilma Velásquez for campaign interference

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 28%15%

Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation of Ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political campaigning, reigniting concerns about his adherence to political‑neutrality rules. The controversy accelerated Cepeda’s slide – his market price fell from 43 % on 10 May to 28 % on 20 May.

Cepeda asks Colombian prosecutor to investigate Haitian ambassador

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 35%5%

Cepeda publicly demanded an investigation into Haitian ambassador Vilma Velásquez for alleged political proselytising. The controversy generated negative media coverage and contributed to a decline in his market price from 40 % (early May) to 35 % by 31 May.

Victims of child killings slam Iván Cepeda in viral video

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 17%17%

A video circulated in which victims accused Cepeda of downplaying the 18,000 child deaths caused by the FARC. The clip sparked a social‑media storm and several news outlets highlighted the backlash, causing Cepeda’s market price to tumble from the mid‑30 % range to the high‑teens within days.

Abelardo de la Espriella reaches peak market support

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%22%

Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign saw a late-stage surge in market support, positioning him as a leading contender.

Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds with strong campaign events

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%23%

Abelardo de la Espriella regained support through effective campaigning and positive media coverage, with market prices rising from 21% to 44%.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads Polymarket betting odds for second round

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%12%

Polymarket data showed Abelardo de la Espriella with a 63% chance to reach the second round, reflecting strong market confidence in his electoral prospects and contributing to his price surge.

Polymarket odds give De la Espriella 63 % chance of runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 71%15%

Polymarket published odds showing De la Espriella with a 63 % chance of reaching the second round, far above his rivals. The market‑prediction platform’s data were cited by several political analysts, prompting a rapid surge in De la Espriella’s price and a further decline for Cepeda.

Prediction market shows Abelardo de la Espriella closing gap with Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 65%22%

Polymarket data indicated a near tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, with 38% and 39% respectively, reflecting growing market confidence in De la Espriella's chances. This coincided with his campaign gaining support from influential political groups, boosting his perceived electability.

Polymarket prediction platform shows Abelardo de la Espriella nearly tied with Iván Cepeda

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 43%3%

International prediction market Polymarket indicated a statistical tie between De la Espriella and Cepeda, reflecting growing confidence in De la Espriella's chances and likely influencing market prices upward for him and downward for Cepeda.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race and endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote and improving Cepeda's chances in the election.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws candidacy and endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo, a minor candidate, withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support behind Cepeda and potentially boosting his chances in the election.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo formally exited the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating left-wing support and causing Murillo's market price to drop to zero while boosting Cepeda's chances.

Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Candidacy to Endorse Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew from the presidential race to support Iván Cepeda, further consolidating the progressive coalition.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws and endorses Iván Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%7%

Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote ahead of the first round and boosting Cepeda's chances against right-wing opponents.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy, endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote ahead of the first round. Despite withdrawal, his name remained on the ballot but votes for him were not counted.

Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws Presidential Candidacy to Endorse Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo officially withdrew his presidential bid to join and support the campaign of Pacto Histórico candidate Iván Cepeda.

Luis Gilberto Murillo Withdraws and Endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew his presidential candidacy to back Iván Cepeda, consolidating the progressive coalition's support.

Luis Gilberto Murillo renuncia a su candidatura y se adhiere a la campaña de Iván Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdrew from the presidential race to endorse and join the campaign of progressive candidate Iván Cepeda Castro, consolidating support on the left.

Abelardo de la Espriella gains former ‘Bukele Colombian’ as strategic ally

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 38%10%

Former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán announced he was joining De la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager, a move that was widely covered on social media and in Pulzo. The endorsement gave the right‑wing candidate a visible boost, coinciding with the market’s jump from 28 % to 38 % for De la Espriella between 1 May and 7 May.

Ex‑Bucaramanga mayor joins de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 52%14%

Former Bucaramanga mayor Beltrán announced he would serve as regional manager for de la Espriella’s campaign, positioning the candidate as a unifying figure for right‑wing voters. The endorsement coincided with a 14‑point jump for de la Espriella from 38 % on 1 May to 52 % on 8 May.

Iván Cepeda denounces armed‑group pressure on voters

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%21%

Cepeda publicly reported intimidation by armed groups ahead of the vote. The announcement coincided with a sharp drop in his market price (‑15 pts) as voters expressed concern over security and possible vote suppression.

Abelardo de la Espriella rebounds in final campaign stretch

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 35%14%

Abelardo de la Espriella's market price rose from 21% to 35% in early May 2026, indicating a recovery in voter support due to effective last-minute campaigning and endorsements.

De la Espriella launches $20 million luxury watch ‘Tigris uno’

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%8%

De la Espriella unveiled a limited‑edition luxury watch costing 20 million pesos. The viral post generated massive online discussion, raising his visibility and prompting a market surge from 38 % on 1 May to 46 % on 13 May.

Abelardo de la Espriella unveils 20 million‑peso luxury campaign watch

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 48%6%

Espriella released a limited‑edition luxury watch priced at 20 million pesos, generating viral social‑media buzz that lifted his market perception from 42 % to 48 % as supporters praised his branding tactics.

Vicky Dávila drops out after health issues

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 0%1%

Vicky Dávila announced she could not continue due to health concerns, sending her price to zero.

Iván Cepeda Leads Presidential Polls with 44.3% Support

A survey by Invamer published on April 28 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 44.3% support, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21.5%. This poll indicated Cepeda's strong position going into the first round and his potential to win a runoff.

Poll: Iván Cepeda leads with 44 % ahead of May election

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 56%20%

Invamer released a poll showing Cepeda at 44.3 % and De la Espriella at 21.5 %. The strong lead triggered a market swing that lifted Cepeda from 36 % (early March) to a peak of 56 % on 5 May, while De la Espriella’s price fell from 34 % to 28 % during the same week.

Iván Cepeda Leads Invamer Poll Ahead of First Round

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 43%6%

A major Invamer poll showed progressive candidate Iván Cepeda leading with 44.3% of voting intention, far ahead of right-wing rivals.

Iván Cepeda leads polls with 44 % ahead of May election

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 53%26%

A new Invamer poll released on 28 April showed Cepeda at 44.3 % – a 7‑point jump from February – and De la Espriella at 21.5 %. The surge in Cepeda’s numbers drove his market price up from 27 % on 9 Mar to 53 % on 5 Mar and helped sustain his lead through May.

Invamer Poll Shows Iván Cepeda Leading with 44.3% Support

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%6%

A major Invamer poll showed leftist candidate Iván Cepeda holding a commanding lead at 44.3%, while right-wing rivals Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia trailed, splitting the conservative vote.

Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%7%

The former mayor of Bucaramanga, Jaime Andrés Beltrán, publicly joined Espriella’s campaign as regional manager, fueling a media surge that lifted Espriella’s price from the low‑30s to the mid‑40s.

Invamer Poll Shows Iván Cepeda Leading Presidential Race with 44.3% Support

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 43%3%

A major national poll by Invamer showed progressive candidate Iván Cepeda holding a commanding lead over his conservative rivals, boosting his market standing.

Iván Cepeda faces public criticism over conflict victims

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 38%2%

A video circulated showing Iván Cepeda being publicly confronted about child victims of the armed conflict linked to FARC, sparking controversy and criticism from rival candidate Vicky Dávila. This event highlighted tensions around Cepeda's campaign and affected public perception.

Colombia announces first international audit of presidential election systems

The Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil announced an unprecedented international technical audit of Colombia's presidential election systems and source code, enhancing transparency ahead of the May 31 vote. This increased confidence in the electoral process amid political polarization and likely influenced market perceptions of election legitimacy.

Former Bucaramanga mayor joins De la Espriella’s campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 48%4%

De la Espriella announced that former Bucaramanga mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán would join his campaign as regional manager. The endorsement by a popular local figure was reported by Pulzo and generated a noticeable uptick in De la Espriella’s market price during late April.

Carlos Felipe Córdoba’s campaign disbands amid funding scandal

Carlos Felipe Córdoba plunges to 0%33%

A funding scandal forced the disbanding of Córdoba’s campaign, collapsing his market price.

Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention

Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%

Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.

Cepeda challenges Valencia and De la Espriella to a democratic debate

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 31%7%

Cepeda publicly challenged Paloma Valencia and De la Espriella to a “truly democratic” debate. While intended to raise his profile, the move was met with criticism from right‑wing outlets and coincided with a modest decline in his market odds during the second week of April.

President Petro Warns of CIA-Detected Attack Plan Against Iván Cepeda

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 17%2%

President Gustavo Petro announced that the CIA had concrete data regarding a potential assassination plot targeting candidate Iván Cepeda, prompting heightened security measures.

Iván Cepeda says he will not back down after CIA‑linked threat of assassination

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 38%7%

Cepeda responded to a presidential alert that the CIA possessed “real and concrete data” about a possible attack on him, publicly refusing to be intimidated. The announcement revived security concerns and contributed to a 7‑point slide in his price from 45 % (early April) to 38 % by 19 Apr.

De la Espriella proposes construction of 10 mega-prisons to combat crime

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 28%6%

Abelardo de la Espriella announced plans to build mega-prisons inspired by El Salvador's Nayib Bukele to fight extortion and criminal gangs, reinforcing his tough-on-crime image and boosting his appeal among voters concerned about security, contributing to his rising market support.

Iván Cepeda Castro maintains lead in polls amid campaign intensification

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 41%3%

Iván Cepeda Castro sustained his lead in polls as the campaign intensified, reflecting continued voter support for the left-wing candidate. This stability was mirrored in market prices, reinforcing his frontrunner status.

Vicky Dávila leaves Paloma Valencia’s coalition, returns to journalism

Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 0%28%

After losing the right-wing primary, Vicky Dávila exited the coalition supporting Paloma Valencia and returned to journalism, effectively ending her presidential campaign and causing her market support to drop to zero.

Roy Barreras eliminated in inter‑party primaries

Roy Barreras drops to 0%7%

Roy Barreras failed to secure enough votes in the primary round, causing his market price to drop to zero.

Polls show Iván Cepeda maintains lead but faces stagnation in voter support

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 37%10%

Polls indicated Cepeda's lead remained steady but without growth, raising concerns about his ability to win outright in the first round. This contributed to price fluctuations and uncertainty in the market regarding his ultimate chances.

Paloma Valencia reaches peak support amid campaign momentum

Paloma Valencia jumps to 47%6%

Paloma Valencia's market price peaked at 47% in early April 2026, reflecting sustained campaign momentum and growing voter enthusiasm ahead of the election.

Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests

Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.

Abelardo de la Espriella invests 195 million pesos in private electoral tracking service

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%4%

De la Espriella's campaign contracted AtlasIntel's private tracker service to monitor daily electoral pulse, enabling strategic adjustments and possibly improving campaign effectiveness, which contributed to his rising market support.

Abelardo de la Espriella vows to deploy army to streets amid rising campaign tensions

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 19%3%

De la Espriella's strong law-and-order rhetoric, including a promise to deploy the army to streets, aimed to consolidate his base and counter opponents. This statement likely contributed to volatility in his market price as voters reacted.

Small plane crash kills Colombian congress member Diógenes Quintero

The death of congressman Diógenes Quintero in a plane crash was a significant event affecting political dynamics, potentially influencing voter sentiment and candidate support.

Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement

Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%

Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.

Poll shows Paloma Valencia surges to second place, challenging Iván Cepeda

Paloma Valencia surges to 40%18%

A Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll revealed Paloma Valencia rising to second place with 22.2%, displacing De la Espriella and creating a statistical tie with Cepeda in runoff scenarios. This reshaped the race dynamics, causing market fluctuations as Valencia emerged as a significant contender.

Paloma Valencia surges in polls after strong debate showing

Paloma Valencia surges to 39%30%

Paloma Valencia's market price jumped from 9% to 39% in March 2026 following a well-received debate performance that energized her campaign and attracted new supporters.

Former Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo endorses Iván Cepeda's presidential campaign

Cristo withdrew his independent bid and endorsed Cepeda, consolidating the left-wing vote and strengthening Cepeda's campaign ahead of the May 31 election.

Foiled assassination attempt against Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%

Authorities prevented a potential attack on De La Espriella when a man posing as a security escort was found armed at a campaign event in Envigado. This incident raised security concerns but reinforced his campaign's visibility, contributing to a price rebound from 14% to 25%.

Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%

A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.

Abelardo de la Espriella's support plummets amid controversy

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 14%7%

Controversial statements and campaign missteps caused Abelardo de la Espriella's market support to fall sharply from 21% to 14%.

Attempted assassination plot against Abelardo de la Espriella foiled in Envigado

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 25%11%

Security forces prevented an armed individual posing as a campaign bodyguard from attacking De la Espriella during a political event. This incident heightened concerns about candidate safety and may have rallied public sympathy, contributing to a rebound in his market price.

Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%

A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.

Security incident: Suspected intelligence operation foiled during Abelardo de la Espriella campaign event in Envigado

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%26%

A security breach involving a person posing as a security guard with surveillance equipment was uncovered, which raised concerns about campaign safety and potentially influenced voter perceptions of the candidate's vulnerability.

Abelardo de la Espriella's support collapses after controversy

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 14%25%

Abelardo de la Espriella's market price dropped from 39% to 14% in mid-March 2026 due to a major controversy that damaged his public image and voter trust.

Victims of FARC publicly rebuke Iván Cepeda – Vicky Dávila weighs in

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%

A video circulated showing victims of the FARC publicly rebuking Cepeda for the number of child victims. Vicky Dávila amplified the criticism on social media. The controversy caused Cepeda’s market price to tumble 8 points from 47 % on 8 Mar to 39 % on 15 Mar, while de la Espriella’s price stayed flat.

Paloma Valencia announces Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential candidate

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%

Center-right candidate Paloma Valencia announced Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate. Oviedo, an economist and former director of Colombia's statistics department, brought a technical and centrist profile to the campaign, aiming to consolidate support within the center-right coalition ahead of the presidential election.

Paloma Valencia selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as vice-presidential running mate

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 3%2%

Valencia's choice of Oviedo, a centrist economist, boosted her campaign's appeal to moderate voters and affected market dynamics, with Oviedo's profile rising and impacting related market prices.

Paloma Valencia Appoints Juan Daniel Oviedo as Vice-Presidential Running Mate

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%

Conservative candidate Paloma Valencia selected economist and former statistics chief Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate to broaden her appeal to urban and independent voters, which impacted Oviedo's market profile.

Paloma Valencia Confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as Her Vice-Presidential Running Mate

Following negotiations after the primary, Juan Daniel Oviedo officially joined Paloma Valencia's ticket as her vice-presidential candidate, ending his independent presidential bid.

Paloma Valencia Names Juan Daniel Oviedo as Vice-Presidential Running Mate

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) rises to 4%4%

Conservative candidate Paloma Valencia selected centrist economist Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate, a move that initially consolidated the center-right ticket but later alienated hardline voters.

Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%

Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.

Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary for presidency

Paloma Valencia surges to 38%16%

Paloma Valencia secured the Democratic Center's nomination after winning the party's primary, becoming the main right-wing candidate and impacting market prices by consolidating conservative support.

Juan Daniel Oviedo announced as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%

Following the March 8 legislative elections and interparty consultations, Paloma Valencia confirmed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential running mate, forming a center-right ticket for the presidential election. Oviedo, a former director of DANE and economist, gained significant votes in the primary.

Paloma Valencia sees surge in presidential campaign support

Paloma Valencia surges to 28%17%

Paloma Valencia's campaign experienced a sharp increase in market confidence, reflecting a shift in the competitive landscape.

Paloma Valencia's surge after strong debate performance

Paloma Valencia surges to 37%26%

Paloma Valencia's impressive debate performance led to a sharp increase in market support from 11% to 37%, signaling renewed voter interest.

Market reacts to narrowing candidate field ahead of March primaries

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 28%10%

As the field of presidential candidates narrowed in early March with interparty primaries, market prices adjusted to reflect the changing competitive landscape, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia's standings.

Iván Cepeda reveals Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%11%

Cepeda announced Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice‑presidential running mate. The selection energized his base and sparked a brief rally in his price, which rose from 44 % on 8 Mar to a peak of 55 % on 5 Mar, before the later declines.

Iván Cepeda picks Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 13%43%

Cepeda announced Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice‑presidential running mate. The selection was praised by left‑wing supporters but failed to broaden his appeal beyond the core base, after which his price fell steadily from a March peak of 56 % to 13 % by 12 June.

Iván Cepeda announces Aida Quilcué as vice-presidential candidate

Following his overwhelming majority in the parliamentary elections, Iván Cepeda announced Aida Quilcué as his running mate, solidifying his ticket for the presidential race and reinforcing his campaign's focus on social justice and inclusion.

Ivan Cepeda names Indigenous activist Aída Quilcué as running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%

Cepeda announced Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as his vice‑presidential running mate, emphasizing a coalition with social movements. The announcement halted the prior decline and produced a modest rebound from 37 % (Mar 5) to 39 % (Mar 14), stabilising his price before the later fall.

Cepeda announces Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 49%10%

Cepeda unveiled Indigenous leader Aida Quilcué as his vice‑presidential running mate. The announcement was covered as a strategic move to broaden his appeal among rural and Indigenous voters, and the market price rose from 39 % (3 Mar) to 49 % (7 Mar).

Frustrated assassination attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella during campaign event

Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 19%15%

Security forces thwarted a suspected assassination attempt on De La Espriella in Envigado, heightening the campaign's tension and possibly rallying support around him due to increased visibility and sympathy.

Iván Cepeda announces Aída Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 43%5%

Cepeda's selection of Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as his vice-presidential candidate reinforced his campaign's social justice and diversity narrative, consolidating his base and contributing to a market price increase.

Iván Cepeda announces Indigenous leader Aída Quilcué as vice-presidential running mate

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%

Cepeda's selection of Aída Quilcué, a prominent Indigenous leader, strengthened his campaign by reinforcing his connection to social movements and marginalized communities, boosting his support among progressive voters.

Claudia López wins centrist primary but fails to advance in presidential race

Claudia López (IND) plunges to 0%50%

Claudia López won the centrist primary but finished fifth in the first round of the presidential election with less than 1% of the vote, failing to advance to the runoff and marking a decline in centrist influence.

Pacto Histórico consolidates legislative strength with 65 seats in Congress

The Pacto Histórico coalition, led by Iván Cepeda, secured a strong legislative presence with 65 seats in the Colombian Congress in March 2026. This legislative success bolstered Cepeda's political standing and campaign momentum ahead of the presidential election.

Paloma Valencia Wins Gran Consulta Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Finishes Second

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%

In the interparty primaries held alongside the legislative elections, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes, ending his independent presidential run.

Iván Cepeda confronted over FARC child victim figures during campaign

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%8%

During the campaign, Iván Cepeda was publicly confronted by victims of child recruitment by FARC, sparking political debate and criticism, including from rival candidate Vicky Dávila, impacting Cepeda's public image and market price.

Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) plunges to 0%50%

Juan Daniel Oviedo, after finishing second in the center-right primary, was confirmed as the vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia, consolidating the center-right ticket for the presidential election.

Paloma Valencia wins right-wing primary, selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate

Paloma Valencia secured a decisive victory in the conservative primary, consolidating her position as the main right-wing candidate. She chose Juan Daniel Oviedo, a centrist and former head of Colombia's statistics agency, as her vice-presidential running mate to broaden appeal.

Paloma Valencia Wins Center-Right Primary as Legislative Elections Narrow the Field

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 48%1%

The March 8 interparty primaries and legislative elections consolidated the candidate field, establishing Paloma Valencia as the definitive center-right candidate and narrowing the path for other contenders.

Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary, selects Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate

Paloma Valencia secured the center-right nomination and chose Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the right-wing vote and affecting the market dynamics for Oviedo and Valencia.

Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary with significant majority

Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%1%

Paloma Valencia secured a decisive victory in the center-right primary election, obtaining over 3 million votes and becoming the official candidate of the Democratic Center party. This positioned her as a leading conservative contender ahead of the presidential election.

Paloma Valencia wins center-right primary and confirms Juan Daniel Oviedo as running mate

Paloma Valencia won the center-right primary decisively and selected Juan Daniel Oviedo as her vice-presidential candidate, consolidating the center-right ticket for the May 31 election.

Iván Cepeda incriminated by child‑victim video; Vicky Dávila condemns him

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 36%8%

A video circulated showing victims of the FARC confronting Cepeda over the number of child victims, generating negative social media reactions and pulling his market price down by eight points the next day.

Paloma Valencia Wins Primary as Juan Daniel Oviedo Secures Second Place

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 0%1%

In the March 8 legislative elections and interparty primaries, Paloma Valencia won the Gran Consulta por Colombia with over 3 million votes, while Juan Daniel Oviedo finished second with over 1.2 million votes.

Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary with over 3 million votes

Paloma Valencia jumps to 23%14%

Paloma Valencia's decisive victory in the Democratic Center primary established her as the official far-right candidate, initially boosting her market price. However, her support later declined as the campaign progressed.

Juan Daniel Oviedo confirmed as vice-presidential running mate of Paloma Valencia

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) drops to 1%5%

Following the March 8 interparty consultations, Oviedo was confirmed as the vice-presidential candidate alongside Paloma Valencia, consolidating a center-right coalition and impacting Oviedo's market price which later declined as the campaign progressed.

Juan Daniel Oviedo surprises in Gran Consulta, later confirmed as Paloma Valencia's vice-presidential running mate

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) jumps to 6%5%

Juan Daniel Oviedo emerged as a surprise contender in the center-right Gran Consulta primary, finishing second and later becoming the vice-presidential candidate for Paloma Valencia. This boosted Oviedo's profile and affected his market price.

Iván Cepeda Castro peaks in polls amid strong campaign performance

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 56%17%

Iván Cepeda Castro's market price peaked at 56% in early March 2026, reflecting strong debate performances and effective voter outreach that positioned him as a leading candidate.

Sergio Fajardo exits race after poor poll results

Sergio Fajardo (DC) plunges to 0%15%

Facing consistently low poll numbers, Sergio Fajardo suspended his campaign, driving his price to zero.

Ivan Cepeda leads in polls as presidential field narrows

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%5%

Senator Ivan Cepeda, from President Gustavo Petro's coalition, maintained a lead in polls, influencing market expectations for the upcoming election.

Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential field

Paloma Valencia drops to 10%12%

Several candidates competed in interparty primaries, leading to a narrowing of the field and causing price adjustments for candidates like Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella as voter preferences consolidated.

Ex-mayor Jaime Andrés Beltrán joins Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign as regional manager

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%3%

Jaime Andrés Beltrán, known as 'the Bukele Colombian', abandoned his Senate bid to support De la Espriella's campaign, strengthening the candidate's regional presence and boosting his market position.

Creemos movement endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 41%4%

The centrist-right political movement Creemos, led by Medellín's mayor Federico Gutiérrez, officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, consolidating a centrist-right alliance and boosting his campaign's credibility and support.

DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%

The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.

Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%

Iván Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.

Political violence impacts candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay's legacy

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%8%

The assassination of Miguel Uribe Turbay in 2025 continued to resonate in the political landscape, with his father's candidacy and the unresolved motives behind the killing influencing voter sentiment and market prices for related candidates.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces lawsuit against Netflix

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%

De la Espriella publicly announced legal action against Netflix to defend his family's honor, which increased his media visibility and may have influenced public perception and market interest in his candidacy.

Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls with growing support

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%

Polls in late February showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with around 40% support, consolidating his position as the progressive front-runner and setting expectations for the election.

Juan Daniel Oviedo gains notable support as Paloma Valencia's running mate

Juan Daniel Oviedo, former head of Colombia's statistics agency, was selected as vice-presidential candidate by conservative Paloma Valencia, attracting urban and centrist voters and influencing the dynamics of the right-wing vote in the presidential race.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate

De la Espriella's announcement of economist and ex-minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate strengthened his campaign's credibility and appeal, leading to increased market confidence and price gains.

Iván Cepeda emerges as frontrunner in presidential polls

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%

Polls in early 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with increasing support, positioning him as the likely successor to President Gustavo Petro. This boosted market confidence in Cepeda's chances.

Iván Cepeda emerges as progressive frontrunner in presidential polls

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%

Polls in early 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with increasing support, positioning him as the likely successor to President Gustavo Petro. This early momentum established Cepeda as a key contender and influenced market expectations.

Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid

Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, reviving the Uribe political brand and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition, where Iván Cepeda is a leading figure, boosting his perceived electability.

Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls with growing support

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 44%5%

A poll conducted by Invamer in late April 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 44.3% support, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 21.5%. This early momentum positioned Cepeda as the frontrunner in the lead-up to the May 31 election.

Abelardo de la Espriella empata con Iván Cepeda según firma internacional de predicciones

Polymarket's international prediction platform showed De La Espriella and Iván Cepeda tied at 39% and 38% respectively, indicating a competitive race with De La Espriella gaining ground in global prediction markets.

Abelardo de la Espriella Declared 'Military Target' by ELN Guerrilla

On February 12, Abelardo de la Espriella publicly denounced that the ELN guerrilla had declared him a military target, with threats of attacks in major Colombian cities. This heightened security concerns around his campaign and underscored the violent context of the election.

Abelardo de la Espriella denounces being declared a "military target" by ELN guerrilla

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%2%

On February 12, Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign announced that the ELN guerrilla declared him a "military target" following anonymous threats of planned attacks. This raised security concerns and likely influenced market perceptions of his campaign's vulnerability, contributing to price fluctuations around this date.

Abelardo de la Espriella reports anonymous military threat from ELN guerrilla

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%1%

Abelardo de la Espriella publicly denounced receiving an anonymous threat declaring him a military target by the ELN guerrilla, highlighting the security challenges in his campaign and possibly increasing his support among voters favoring strong security policies.

National Civil Registry Invalidates Signatures for Abelardo de la Espriella and Other Candidates

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 30%5%

Colombia's National Civil Registry invalidated millions of signatures submitted by independent presidential hopefuls due to irregularities, significantly reducing the publicly announced support levels for Abelardo de la Espriella.

Abelardo de la Espriella Outlines Hardline Military and Economic Vision to Reuters

Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella pitched himself as a political outsider, promising a military crackdown to restore security and boost annual economic growth to 6-7%.

Abelardo de la Espriella pledges military offensive to restore security and boost economy

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 40%2%

Abelardo de la Espriella, a right-wing presidential candidate, declared plans for a military crackdown to improve security and economic growth. This stance differentiated him from his left-wing opponent and increased his support in polls, reflected in market price gains.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll for first round

A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the first round with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early poll established De la Espriella as a top contender, boosting his market price from 39% to 39%.

Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid

De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with prominent right-wing leaders like Javier Milei and Santiago Abascal. This move bolstered his international profile and solidified his right-wing credentials, likely contributing to early market confidence in his candidacy.

AtlasIntel/Semana poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first round

A major poll by AtlasIntel for Semana placed De la Espriella in the lead with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%. This early polling data likely supported market confidence in De la Espriella's viability as a frontrunner.

Feb 2026 poll shows Cepeda solidly ahead, others stuck near 1 %

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%

A February poll released after the election‑campaign blackout reaffirmed Cepeda’s lead at ~32 % and kept all other candidates in the low‑single‑digit range, cementing the market’s view that the race had effectively narrowed to Cepeda versus a fragmented opposition.

De La Espriella announces economist José Manuel Restrepo as running mate

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 55%5%

De La Espriella selected José Manuel Restrepo, a former finance minister, as his vice-presidential candidate, enhancing his campaign's credibility and appealing to moderate voters, which contributed to his market gains.

Trump endorses far‑right Colombian candidate De la Espriella

A U.S. Congressional report noted that former President Trump endorsed Espriella, a move Petro criticized as interference. The mention sparked a modest uptick in Espriella’s price from 39 % (Feb 8) to 39 % (Feb 14) and helped sustain his gradual rise.

Presidential primaries set for March 8 with reduced left and center-right fields

Colombia's presidential primaries will be held alongside legislative elections on March 8, 2026. The left's Pacto Histórico primary is expected to be won by Iván Cepeda, while the center-right primary features Claudia López and Leonardo Huertas, reflecting a narrowing of candidates ahead of the general election.

Colombia’s left narrows 2026 presidential field to Iván Cepeda, Carolina Corcho, Daniel Quintero

Several left-wing candidates withdrew from the race, consolidating support behind Iván Cepeda and narrowing the field for the Historic Pact coalition. This consolidation strengthened Cepeda’s position as the leading leftist candidate ahead of the election.

Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-president Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell links

Iván Cepeda Castro plunges to 18%20%

Senator and presidential candidate Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana for alleged misuse of military assets to entertain Ghislaine Maxwell, linked to Jeffrey Epstein. This controversy heightened political tensions and affected Cepeda's campaign image.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads early presidential polls

Early 2026 polls showed Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, with Iván Cepeda close behind. These polls set the tone for a competitive election, highlighting the polarization between right-wing and left-wing candidates.

Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex‑president Pastrana over Epstein‑Maxwell documents

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 36%3%

Cepeda announced he would file a criminal complaint against former president Pastrana over de‑classified US DOJ files linking Pastrana to Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. The allegation generated negative press for Cepeda and coincides with the first sharp decline in his price (from 38 % on 7 Feb to 39 % on 13 Feb, then a dip to 36 % by mid‑March).

Iván Cepeda sues former President Pastrana over Epstein-Maxwell allegations

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%

Iván Cepeda filed a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana following declassified US documents linking Pastrana to associates of Jeffrey Epstein, stirring political controversy ahead of the election.

Yanhaas poll shows Iván Cepeda dominating the progressive bloc

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 41%6%

A new poll by Yanhaas S.A. showed Iván Cepeda commanding a massive 40% of voting intention within the progressive Frente Amplio, far ahead of rivals Roy Barreras and Camilo Romero, boosting his market standing.

Iván Cepeda files criminal complaint against ex-president Pastrana over Epstein links

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 36%2%

Senator and presidential candidate Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana regarding alleged misuse of military assets to entertain Ghislaine Maxwell, linked to Jeffrey Epstein. This controversy heightened political tensions and affected Cepeda's campaign image.

Iván Cepeda Files Criminal Complaint Against Former President Andrés Pastrana Over Epstein Files

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 40%1%

Senator and presidential candidate Iván Cepeda announced a criminal complaint against former President Andrés Pastrana, alleging misuse of military assets to host Ghislaine Maxwell, escalating campaign tensions.

Iván Cepeda leads polls as progressive front-runner in Colombia's 2026 presidential race

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%2%

Polls in early 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with strong support from progressive voters and those aligned with President Gustavo Petro's social reforms. This established Cepeda as the main left-wing candidate and front-runner in the election.

Abelardo de la Espriella signals political reconciliation with Vicky Dávila

De la Espriella publicly responded to Vicky Dávila's message endorsing a united front against Iván Cepeda, signaling a strategic reconciliation within the right-wing camp. This rapprochement was seen as an effort to consolidate support and strengthen De la Espriella's position, impacting market perceptions positively.

AtlasIntel poll shows Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella in a statistical tie

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 39%1%

A new AtlasIntel poll published by Semana magazine revealed that conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist senator Iván Cepeda were locked in a statistical tie, with De la Espriella at 32.1% and Cepeda at 31.4% support.

Poll Shows Tight Race Between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda

A poll published on February 7, 2026, indicated a statistical tie between Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda, reflecting a highly competitive race. This poll likely contributed to price stabilization and minor fluctuations in their market positions.

Assassination of Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Coordinator in Meta

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%3%

On February 5, 2026, Abelardo de la Espriella's local campaign coordinator and an advisor were assassinated in Cubarral, Meta. This violent attack highlighted the dangerous security environment for political actors in Colombia and led to a sharp increase in Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as his campaign gained sympathy and attention.

Iván Cepeda Withdraws from Leftist Consultation and Commits to First Round Run

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 39%1%

Following his exclusion from the leftist consultation, Iván Cepeda officially withdrew from the March 8 consultation and announced he would run directly in the first round of the presidential election. This strategic shift affected his market price and the dynamics of the left-wing vote.

Colombian electoral authority bars Iván Cepeda from left-wing primary

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%

The National Electoral Council denied Iván Cepeda participation in the left-wing inter-party primary scheduled for March 8, 2026. This exclusion led Cepeda to announce he would run directly in the first round, impacting his campaign strategy and market perception.

Iván Cepeda Barred from Key Leftist Primary by Electoral Authority

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 37%3%

On February 4, 2026, Colombia's electoral authority barred Iván Cepeda from participating in a key leftist primary, weakening his coalition and forcing him to adjust his electoral strategy. This event caused fluctuations in his market price as it introduced uncertainty about his path to the presidency.

CNE debars Iván Cepeda from participating in the left-wing primary consultation

Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 39%1%

The National Electoral Council (CNE) ruled that Iván Cepeda was legally barred from participating in the 'Frente por la Vida' inter-party primary because he had already won the Pacto Histórico consultation in October 2025. Cepeda declared the decision arbitrary and announced he would bypass the primary to run directly in the first round.

CNE Bars Leftist Frontrunner Iván Cepeda From Interparty Primary

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%

Colombia's National Electoral Council (CNE) ruled that Iván Cepeda was barred from participating in the 'Frente por la Vida' interparty primary. In response, Cepeda and the Pacto Histórico withdrew from the primary to register his candidacy directly for the first-round presidential election.

Iván Cepeda excluded from left-wing primary, forced to run directly in first round

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 30%9%

Colombia's National Electoral Council excluded Iván Cepeda from the left-wing interparty primary, causing uncertainty and a drop in his market price from 39% to 30%. This decision fragmented the left-wing coalition and altered the electoral dynamics.

Pacto Histórico Ratifies Iván Cepeda as Candidate and Outlines Direct First-Round Strategy

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%

The ruling Pacto Histórico coalition officially ratified Iván Cepeda Castro as its candidate, announcing he would register directly for the first round of the presidential election if the National Electoral Council (CNE) barred him from the primary.

Iván Cepeda denied participation in left‑wing primary by CNE

The CNE’s decision to exclude Cepeda from the left‑wing inter‑party primary removed his main path to the presidency, prompting traders to push his market price upward as the campaign shifted to a direct first‑round run‑off strategy.

Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 41%7%

A diplomatic thaw between Petro and Trump, marked by preparations for a high-stakes meeting, reduced political tensions and improved market confidence in the left-wing coalition's stability, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro's standing.

Iván Cepeda meets with international leaders to project presidential candidacy

Iván Cepeda held meetings with leaders such as Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum, Brazil's Lula da Silva, and Spain's Pedro Sánchez to strengthen his international profile and build diplomatic support ahead of the election.

President Gustavo Petro Meets Donald Trump at the White House

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%

Colombian President Gustavo Petro traveled to Washington on a special visa to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, aiming to partially de-escalate highly strained bilateral relations.

Gustavo Petro meets US President Trump, easing diplomatic tensions

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 42%8%

The high‑profile meeting reduced concerns about US sanctions, indirectly benefiting candidates aligned with Petro’s agenda, notably Iván Cepeda.

Abelardo De La Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as running mate

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 44%4%

The candidate announced economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential running mate, signaling a strong, credible team that could appeal to a broader electorate and boost his campaign momentum.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate

The announcement of José Manuel Restrepo, an experienced economist and former minister, as de la Espriella's running mate strengthened his campaign's credibility and market position.

Abelardo de la Espriella se acerca en última encuesta AtlasIntel

AtlasIntel's latest poll showed De La Espriella at 32.9% and Iván Cepeda at 37.6%, with De La Espriella gaining ground as the race intensified.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana presidential poll

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 37%2%

A poll conducted between January 27 and February 4 showed De la Espriella leading the presidential race with 33.0% against Iván Cepeda's 31.3%, indicating a tight contest and growing support for the right-wing candidate.

AtlasIntel Poll Places Abelardo de la Espriella in the Lead

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 48%15%

A new nationwide poll by AtlasIntel showed far-right independent candidate Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voting intentions, causing a sharp shift in prediction market odds.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%

President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.

Creemos endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for 2026 presidency

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 47%11%

The Creemos political movement formally endorsed De la Espriella, giving the far‑right candidate a legitimacy boost that lifted his market price from the mid‑30 % region to a peak of 47 % shortly after.

Creemos movement endorses Abelardo de la Espriella for presidency

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%5%

The endorsement by the Creemos political movement, led by Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez, significantly strengthened De la Espriella's campaign by consolidating right-wing support and signaling a shift in opposition dynamics. This alliance contributed to De la Espriella's rise in market prices.

Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Education Alliance with Antioquia Councillor Luis Guillermo Patiño

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 46%5%

De La Espriella formally allied with Patiño, bringing regional education expertise to his campaign and strengthening his opposition platform against the current government.

De La Espriella Backs Antioquia Education Leader Patiño

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 39%1%

De La Espriella formally allied with Luis Guillermo Patiño, a Creemos candidate, to promote education reform. This strategic partnership likely strengthened his campaign program and market position.

Medellin Mayor Federico Gutierrez endorses Abelardo de la Espriella's presidential bid

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%

The endorsement from Medellin's mayor Federico Gutierrez bolstered Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign, signaling growing regional alliances and strengthening his position against Iván Cepeda in the upcoming election.

Federico Gutiérrez's Creemos Movement Officially Endorses Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 35%1%

The political movement Creemos, led by Medellín Mayor Federico Gutiérrez, officially endorsed Abelardo de la Espriella, consolidating right-wing support behind his populist candidacy.

Colombian President Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 42%4%

President Gustavo Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw that influenced market confidence in candidates associated with Petro's coalition, including Iván Cepeda Castro.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads AtlasIntel/Semana poll

Abelardo de la Espriella leads the first round in the AtlasIntel/Semana poll with 33%, narrowly ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%, indicating a tight race with significant undecided voters.

Abelardo de la Espriella lidera la 1ª vuelta en la encuesta Atlas-Semana

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%2%

AtlasIntel's Semana poll showed De La Espriella leading with 33.0% in the first round scenario, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 31.3%, signaling strong early campaign performance and market confidence.

New Poll Shows Leftist Candidate Iván Cepeda Leading Voters' Preferences

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%3%

A new poll published on Sunday showed leftist candidate Iván Cepeda leading voter preferences, consolidating his position as the primary contender for the left.

Luis Gilberto Murillo resigns as Colombia’s Foreign Minister

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) plunges to 0%50%

Luis Gilberto Murillo resigned as Foreign Minister, ending his official government role and later withdrawing his presidential candidacy. This reduced his electoral prospects to zero and shifted his support towards Iván Cepeda.

Iván Cepeda denounces pressures to block his participation in March 8 consultation

Cepeda publicly denounced attempts to prevent his participation in the interparty consultation, affirming his legitimacy and readiness to take legal action if his political rights were violated. This event highlighted tensions within the electoral process and reinforced his campaign's resolve.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws presidential candidacy to support Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo announced his withdrawal from the presidential race to back Iván Cepeda, aiming to consolidate the left-wing vote and strengthen Cepeda's campaign ahead of the elections.

De La Espriella urges Trump to demand full guarantees for Colombian democracy

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%3%

De La Espriella publicly called on U.S. President Trump to ensure democratic guarantees in Colombia's election, criticizing President Petro and raising his profile as a defender of democracy against leftist influence, which likely boosted his market support.

Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading presidential vote intentions

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%7%

A GAD3 poll released in January 2026 showed Iván Cepeda leading with 30-40% voter intention, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella, boosting Cepeda's market position as the left-wing frontrunner.

Registraduría Certifies Signatures for Murillo, López, and Oviedo

Colombia's National Civil Registry officially certified the signatures collected by independent candidates, formally enabling them to continue in the presidential race.

Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 39%19%

Senator Iván Cepeda Castro, representing the Historical Pact coalition, gained significant support in polls, reflecting his rising prominence as a leading left-wing candidate. This surge influenced market prices, positioning him as a top contender.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming meeting with U.S. President Trump

President Petro announced optimism about a scheduled White House meeting with U.S. President Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension including visa revocations and sanctions. This development suggested potential easing of bilateral tensions, which could affect election dynamics and voter confidence in Petro’s coalition.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race, endorses Iván Cepeda

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%1%

Luis Gilberto Murillo formally withdrew from the presidential race shortly before the first round, endorsing Iván Cepeda to unify the left-wing vote and avoid fragmentation, consolidating Cepeda's position as the leading progressive candidate.

Iván Cepeda Denounces False Health Rumors and Confirms He Will Not Withdraw from Campaign

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%

Iván Cepeda publicly debunked viral social media rumors claiming he was suffering from cancer and planning to withdraw from the presidential race, stabilizing his campaign.

Abelardo de la Espriella joins international right-wing alliance with Carta de Madrid

De la Espriella formalized his adhesion to the Carta de Madrid, aligning with international right-wing leaders to strengthen his campaign's ideological positioning and gain international support.

Abelardo de la Espriella Signs Madrid Charter to Align with International Right

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 36%4%

Abelardo de la Espriella met with Vox leader Santiago Abascal in Spain to sign the Madrid Charter, strengthening his international conservative credentials.

Abelardo de la Espriella Announces Vice-Presidential Candidate José Manuel Restrepo

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 47%1%

De La Espriella announced his vice-presidential running mate, economist José Manuel Restrepo, signaling a strong, credible running team for his campaign.

Poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%12%

A poll released in January 2026 indicated Abelardo de la Espriella leading voter intention with 28%, ahead of Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, signaling a shift in voter preferences and boosting De la Espriella's market price significantly.

Poll shows De La Espriella would defeat Cepeda in presidential runoff

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%9%

An AtlasIntel poll indicated De La Espriella leading voter intent and beating Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff, signaling a shift in voter sentiment and strengthening De La Espriella's market position.

Abelardo de la Espriella Leads New AtlasIntel Poll with 28% Support

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 48%16%

An AtlasIntel poll showed conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading the presidential race, boosting his market standing as the strongest right-wing option.

Luis Gilberto Murillo withdraws from presidential race

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%

Former minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced he would not continue his candidacy, causing his market price to collapse to zero.

AtlasIntel Poll Shows Abelardo de la Espriella Leading First-Round Intentions and Runoff Scenarios

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 47%15%

A major AtlasIntel poll published by Semana showed conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leading first-round voter intent at 28% and defeating left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda in a hypothetical runoff.

Presumed Attempt on Abelardo de la Espriella's Campaign Frustrated in Envigado

Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%1%

A man with weapons and binoculars was caught trying to infiltrate the campaign event in Envigado, leading to security concerns and a campaign statement about the need for guarantees.

Iván Cepeda's polling surge amid campaign momentum

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 39%5%

Around January 9, 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price rose sharply from 34% to 39%, reflecting increased support or positive campaign developments boosting his standing as the main leftist candidate against Abelardo de la Espriella.

AtlasIntel poll shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda leading presidential race

A January 2026 AtlasIntel poll placed Abelardo de la Espriella at 28% and Iván Cepeda at 26.5%, confirming a competitive two-candidate race and boosting market confidence in both.

Abelardo de la Espriella Challenges Main Left-Wing Rival Iván Cepeda to Presidential Debate

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 32%5%

Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella publicly invited his main left-wing rival, Iván Cepeda, to a structured policy debate, highlighting the growing polarization of the race.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 34%3%

President Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies and his defense of national sovereignty heightened political tensions, influencing voter sentiment and market perceptions of left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects.

Claudia López criticizes Donald Trump over threats against Colombian president

Presidential candidate Claudia López publicly criticized former U.S. President Donald Trump for his threats against Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, highlighting the polarized political climate and international tensions influencing the election environment.

Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading Colombia's 2026 presidential race with 31.9%

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%4%

An Invamer poll released at the end of 2025 showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9%, ahead of right-wing and centrist candidates. This reinforced his market position as the favorite.

Iván Cepeda leads Colombia’s 2026 presidential race in Invamer poll

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%1%

A late‑December Invamer poll confirmed Cepeda’s dominance (≈31 %) while showing all other candidates, including De la Espriella, López, Dávila, Murillo, Luna, Oviedo and Bolívar, below 5 %. The poll triggered another round of price collapses, pushing most to 0‑1 % levels.

Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 44%6%

Following the death of his son Miguel Uribe Turbay, a slain presidential hopeful, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender and shifting support within the conservative base.

Prediction markets show tight race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella

Polymarket prediction markets indicated a close contest between Cepeda and De la Espriella, reflecting a polarized electorate and uncertainty in the race, influencing market prices for both candidates.

Polymarket shows Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella neck-and-neck in predictions

Cryptocurrency-based prediction markets indicated a close race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, reflecting divided voter sentiment and influencing market prices for both candidates.

Polymarket shows close race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella

Polymarket prediction data indicated a neck-and-neck race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, each with roughly 36-37% implied probability of victory. This reflected market uncertainty and balanced expectations between the two frontrunners.

Prediction markets show tight race between Cepeda and De la Espriella

Polymarket data indicated a near tie between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo De la Espriella, reflecting a divided electorate and uncertainty in the market about the election outcome.

Polymarket prediction market shows tight race between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella

The cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket reflected a close contest between Iván Cepeda and Abelardo de la Espriella, each with roughly equal odds of winning, indicating a divided electorate and uncertainty in the race.

Abelardo de la Espriella rises as right-wing frontrunner in polls and markets

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 38%12%

Abelardo de la Espriella gained momentum as a populist right-wing candidate, leading polls and prediction markets, positioning himself as a major challenger to Iván Cepeda and reshaping the electoral landscape.

Paloma Valencia surges after strong debate performance

Paloma Valencia surges to 31%26%

Paloma Valencia’s impressive showing in a televised debate boosted her visibility, leading to a sharp rise in her market price.

Right-wing coalition 'Gran Consulta' forms to unify opposition candidates

Several right-wing and centrist candidates including Vicky Dávila, David Luna Sánchez, Juan Daniel Oviedo, and others formed the 'Gran Consulta' coalition to unify their candidacies and avoid vote splitting, impacting their individual market support.

Right-wing remains divided despite 'Gran Consulta' coalition efforts

Despite attempts to unify, the right-wing candidates including David Luna, Vicky Dávila, and Juan Daniel Oviedo remained fragmented, weakening their collective electoral strength and reflected in declining market prices for some candidates.

Right-wing coalition forms 'Gran Consulta' primary to unify candidates

Six right-wing leaders, including David Luna and Vicky Dávila, formed the 'Gran Consulta' coalition to hold an interparty primary on March 8, 2026, aiming to consolidate the right-wing vote and present a unified candidate against the left.

Colombia’s right remains divided ahead of the 2026 elections

Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 1%11%

The announcement of the ‘Gran Consulta’ – a broad right‑wing primary – highlighted internal division and reduced expectations for individual right‑wing candidates, especially Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo, whose prices fell to the low single‑digit levels.

Right-Wing Coalition Forms 'Gran Consulta' to Unify Opposition

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 3%3%

Six right-wing and centrist leaders agreed to participate in an interparty primary on March 8, 2026, to avoid fragmentation against the left.

Right-Wing Leaders Form 'Gran Consulta por Colombia' Coalition

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 1%1%

Six right-wing and centrist political figures agreed to form a coalition and hold a joint primary in March 2026 to consolidate the opposition against the left.

Juan Daniel Oviedo joins right‑wing “Gran Consulta” coalition

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND) dips to 1%2%

The right‑wing “Gran Consulta” announced Oviedo’s participation as one of its nine candidates. The announcement failed to improve his market perception, and his price slipped from 3 % to 1 % shortly thereafter.

Gran Consulta por Colombia Primary Launched

David Luna Sánchez (IND) rises to 1%1%

Six political leaders officially launched the 'Gran Consulta' primary to unify the center-right and right-wing opposition, including Vicky Dávila, David Luna, and Juan Daniel Oviedo.

Gran Consulta por Colombia Coalition Officially Launches

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 1%2%

A broad center-right coalition named 'Gran Consulta' was launched to unite several independent and conservative candidates, including Vicky Dávila, David Luna, and Juan Daniel Oviedo.

Paloma Valencia wins Democratic Center primary as right-wing consolidates

Paloma Valencia was selected as the candidate for the far-right Democratic Center party, signaling a move toward a more moderate right-wing candidacy. This development contributed to the fragmentation and realignment of right-wing forces ahead of the election.

Centro Democrático selects Paloma Valencia as presidential candidate

The right-wing Centro Democrático party chose Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a shift to a more moderate right and impacting the dynamics of right-wing candidates like Abelardo de la Espriella.

Centro Democrático party selects Paloma Valencia as presidential candidate

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 38%1%

Colombia’s Centro Democrático party chose Senator Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a shift toward a more moderate right. This development influenced the right-wing candidate landscape, indirectly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's market position.

Centro Democrático selects Paloma Valencia as its 2026 presidential candidate

Claudia López (IND) plunges to 12%38%

Colombia’s powerful right-wing Centro Democrático party chose Senator Paloma Valencia as its candidate, signaling a shift toward a more moderate right-wing approach to challenge the left in the upcoming election.

Paloma Valencia nominated as Democratic Center's presidential candidate

Paloma Valencia plunges to 7%15%

The Democratic Center party officially nominated Paloma Valencia as its candidate for the 2026 presidential elections, marking a consolidation of the right-wing vote and boosting her market position. This event was significant for right-wing voters and affected related candidates' market shares.

Abelardo de la Espriella announces José Manuel Restrepo as vice-presidential running mate

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 41%7%

Abelardo de la Espriella announced economist and former minister José Manuel Restrepo as his vice-presidential candidate, strengthening his campaign with an experienced figure and boosting his market position.

Vicky Dávila files presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures

Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 1%7%

Dávila formally submitted more than 1.3 million signatures to the Registraduría, confirming her candidacy. The move was interpreted as a loss of momentum for a candidate previously seen as a possible contender, pushing her market probability from 8 % (Nov 2025) down to 1 % by early February 2026.

Vicky Dávila Formalizes Presidential Candidacy with 1.3 Million Signatures

Vicky Dávila (IND) dips to 1%4%

Journalist Vicky Dávila officially submitted over 1.3 million signatures to the Registraduría to run as an independent candidate under the Movimiento Valientes, positioning herself as a citizen alternative.

Vicky Dávila confirms presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures

Vicky Dávila (IND) drops to 2%6%

Investigative journalist Vicky Dávila officially registered her presidential candidacy backed by a large number of signatures, entering the race as a nontraditional candidate and impacting her market position.

Vicky Dávila officially registers presidential candidacy with over 1.3 million signatures

Vicky Dávila (IND) plunges to 1%27%

On December 11, 2025, journalist and independent candidate Vicky Dávila formalized her presidential candidacy by submitting over 1.3 million signatures, marking a significant step in her campaign despite later declines in market support.

Iván Cepeda Castro gains traction with policy proposals

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 34%14%

Iván Cepeda Castro's detailed policy proposals and increased media presence boosted his support, reflected in a rise from 20% to 34% in market prices.

Reuters poll shows Gustavo Bolívar slipping below 5 %

Gustavo Bolívar (HC) drops to 0%11%

A Reuters poll reported Bolívar’s support slipping below 5 % after earlier speculation about his candidacy. The market price fell from 11 % to 1 % in the following days, reflecting dwindling voter interest.

Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 34%18%

Following a period of low polling, Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in market support as his campaign gained traction.

Luis Gilberto Murillo registers candidacy with 1.2 million signatures

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%2%

Murillo formally submitted his candidacy and signatures to the Registraduría on 9 Dec 2025. The entry of a well‑known former foreign minister caused his market price to collapse to 0 % as traders reassigned support to other candidates.

Iván Cepeda’s poll surge puts him at 42 % support

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%

Cepeda’s campaign released a poll showing a 42 % lead, prompting a sudden rally in his odds and a jump in his market price from 18 % (Nov 28) to 43 % (Dec 7).

Abelardo De la Espriella Confirms He Will Skip Right-Wing Primary

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 35%5%

Right-wing frontrunner Abelardo De la Espriella announced he would not participate in the March 2026 interparty primary, choosing to run an independent campaign instead.

Invamer poll places Iván Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% of vote share

Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 36%4%

The Invamer poll published in early December 2025 showed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9%, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%. This poll influenced market prices, tightening the race between Cepeda and De la Espriella.

Claudia López formalizes participation in March 2026 consultation

Claudia López (IND) drops to 6%7%

Claudia López officially announced her intention to participate in the March 2026 interparty consultation, aiming to secure a presidential nomination, which affected her market standing.

Abelardo de la Espriella Skips Right-Wing Primary to Run Directly to First Round

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 41%2%

Controversial lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella announced he would bypass the conservative interparty primary scheduled for March 2026, choosing to run directly as an independent candidate.

Claudia López confirms enough signatures to run independently

Claudia López (IND) dips to 0%2%

Claudia López announced she had collected enough signatures to submit her independent candidacy, shifting her from a marginal position to a more visible contender. Her market price fell to 0 % shortly after, reflecting the limited impact of the announcement in a fragmented field.

Claudia López Registers Independent Presidential Precandidacy

Claudia López (IND) dips to 1%1%

Former Bogota Mayor Claudia López officially registered her independent candidacy, presenting herself as a centrist alternative to defeat both petrismo and uribismo.

Abelardo de la Espriella submits 4.8 million signatures, officializing candidacy

Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 39%18%

De la Espriella delivered more than 4.8 million signatures to the Registraduría, a symbolic milestone that boosted his market price from the low‑30s to a peak of 56 % on 1 Sept 2025 and kept it above 39 % at the end of the window.

Abelardo De La Espriella delivers nearly 4.9 million signatures to formalize presidential candidacy

Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 56%6%

Abelardo De La Espriella officially submitted a record number of signatures to the Registraduría, marking a significant milestone in his campaign and signaling strong grassroots support. This bolstered his position as a leading right-wing candidate, reflected in his market price rise.

DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 13%7%

The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, causing political uncertainty and affecting the market's perception of candidates aligned with or against Petro, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.

Revelations about Abelardo de la Espriella's ties to controversial figures

Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 36%5%

Reports surfaced linking Abelardo de la Espriella to Alex Saab and paramilitary groups, casting doubts on his candidacy and causing a decline in his market support.

Poll places Iván Cepeda well ahead with 31.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%

The Invamer poll published in early December showed Iván Cepeda significantly ahead of rivals, including Abelardo de la Espriella, influencing market prices to reflect Cepeda's growing lead.

Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% ahead of 2026 election

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 32%21%

A national poll by Invamer placed Iván Cepeda well ahead of rivals with 31.9% support, significantly boosting his perceived chances and influencing market prices.

Polls confirm left's unified candidacy with Iván Cepeda leading, right suffers infighting

Polls showed Iván Cepeda consolidating his lead as the left unified behind him, while the right-wing vote fragmented, affecting market prices and candidate viability, with several right candidates losing ground.

Iván Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Invamer poll ahead of 2026 elections

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 40%27%

The Invamer poll released on 30 Nov 2025 showed Cepeda at 31.9 % versus 18.2 % for De la Espriella, driving his market price up from 13 % (early Sep) to around 40 % by mid‑January 2026.

Iván Cepeda leads vote intentions in December poll

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 39%26%

A second Invamer poll published on 1 Dec confirmed Cepeda’s lead at 31.9 % and showed his support rising sharply to over 40 % in the market, pushing his price from the low‑30s to the high‑40s.

Invamer poll puts Iván Cepeda ahead with 31.9 % support

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 40%5%

A December 2025 Invamer poll gave Cepeda 31.9 % support, making him the clear frontrunner. The poll triggered a rise in his market price from the mid‑30 % to around 40 % region.

Iván Cepeda tops new national poll with 31.9% ahead of 2026 election

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 37%14%

An Invamer poll released showed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% of voting intention, significantly ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella and others. This poll confirmed Cepeda's strong position and affected market expectations.

Colombia authorizes euthanasia plan for invasive hippos linked to Pablo Escobar

The Colombian government approved a protocol to euthanize about 80 hippos descended from Pablo Escobar’s private zoo to control their population. The controversial environmental policy sparked local debate and reflected broader governance challenges, indirectly influencing public opinion on leadership and policy effectiveness.

Iván Cepeda Gains Momentum in Polls as Right-Wing Infighting Deepens

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 30%15%

As the right-wing opposition struggled to unite behind a single candidate, Iván Cepeda's unified left-wing candidacy surged in national polls, driving up his market price.

Invamer poll shows Claudia López at 4 % support

Claudia López (IND) drops to 0%13%

A national Invamer poll published on 30 Nov 2025 gave López only 4 % support, the lowest among the listed candidates. The market responded with a near‑zero price, dropping from 13 % to 0 % within days.

Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading Colombia’s 2026 presidential race

A major poll by Invamer showed Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, ahead of right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2% and centrist Sergio Fajardo at 8.5%. This reinforced Cepeda's position as the front-runner and shaped market expectations.

Iván Cepeda Leads Colombia Opina Poll Following Primary Victory

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 32%16%

Senator Iván Cepeda surged in the polls, capturing 31.9% of voting intention after winning the Pacto Histórico consultation, cementing his status as the progressive frontrunner.

Invamer Poll Shows Iván Cepeda Leading Presidential Race

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 31%15%

The first major Invamer poll published after the electoral embargo showed Senator Iván Cepeda dominating voting intentions with 31.9% support.

Iván Cepeda leads presidential polls with 31.9% support

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 39%11%

A major poll by Invamer showed Iván Cepeda leading the presidential race with 31.9% support, far ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 18.2%, signaling early momentum for Cepeda as the likely successor to President Gustavo Petro.

Iván Cepeda Dominates Invamer Poll as Right-Wing Opposition Remains Fragmented

Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 43%25%

The first major post-embargo poll showed Senator Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, far ahead of conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella.

Iván Cepeda leads presidential vote intentions in Colombia's 2026 election

A poll by Invamer showed Senator Iván Cepeda leading with 31.9% support, significantly ahead of right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella and centrist Sergio Fajardo. This poll reinforced Cepeda's position as the progressive front-runner and boosted market confidence in his candidacy.

Luis Gilberto Murillo's support falls to near zero in polls

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) dips to 0%3%

Luis Gilberto Murillo's market price collapsed as polls showed negligible support, effectively ending his viability as a contender in the election.

Independent Candidates Claudia López and Vicky Dávila Surpass 1 Million Signatures

Independent pre-candidates Claudia López and Vicky Dávila successfully gathered over one million signatures each, allowing them to formally register their independent presidential bids.

David Luna Registers Independent Candidacy with 1.3 Million Signatures

David Luna Sánchez (IND) dips to 1%2%

Former minister and senator David Luna officially registered his independent presidential candidacy at the Registraduría, presenting 1.3 million signatures and dedicating his run to the late Miguel Uribe.

David Luna formalizó su inscripción como candidato independiente para 2026

David Luna Sánchez (IND) rises to 2%1%

Luna delivered over one million signatures to the Registraduría, officially registering his independent candidacy. The market responded with a modest rise from 1 % to 2 % that month.

DEA designates President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug probe

Iván Cepeda Castro drops to 17%9%

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration named Colombian President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' in investigations into alleged ties to drug traffickers. This development heightened political tensions and influenced market perceptions of candidates aligned with or opposed to Petro.

Abelardo De La Espriella unveils hardline security proposal with extreme-isolation megaprisons

Abelardo de la Espriella rises to 35%2%

De La Espriella proposed a tough-on-crime policy featuring mega-prisons with extreme isolation to combat organized crime, positioning himself as the strongest candidate on security issues. This bolstered his appeal among voters concerned about crime, contributing to his rise in the market.

Ivan Cepeda tops new national poll with 20.9% support

Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 21%7%

A Centro Nacional de Consultoria poll showed Iván Cepeda leading the crowded field with 20.9%, ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella at 14.4%, reinforcing Cepeda's frontrunner status.